NASCAR’s season of change is upon us.
Some of the differences will be easy to recognize, others are more subtle. The major changes include the new Next Gen cars with new graphics. The cars have new wheels with a single locking lug instead of five lug nuts and new transmissions. Notably, they’re racing on a pair of new tracks, including one inside a football stadium.
It’s the second year of great change after the sanctioning body overhauled the Cup Series schedule in 2021 to include more road courses. This season, the 1.25-mile oval at St. Louis was added to the schedule and 100 laps were taken off the spring Martinsville race.
The biggest change starts Sunday with the Busch Light Clash run inside the Los Angeles Coliseum instead of the traditional kickoff at Daytona.
There are more questions than answers at this point. Will the new car create closer competition, specifically closing the gap between the large and small teams, as it is intended? Or will a couple of the big teams hit on something with the new car and leave the rest of the field in their dust?
It’s truly something we won’t know until the season is well underway.
The first question surrounds the racing inside the LA Coliseum. There has been weekly racing on the quarter-mile inside Bowman-Gray Stadium (former home for Wake Forest football) since the beginning of NASCAR. It consistently produces entertaining shows.
Will the racing inside the LA Coliseum be just as good with the beating and banging short-track action fans have called for? Or will it be not worth a hoot and have fans clamoring for a return to Daytona?
Based on what we do know, here are our best predictions for the 2022 season.
Who will be the Championship Four?
The last two Cup Series champions — Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott — have to be considered preseason favorites as teammates for the powerful Hendrick Motorsports organization. Larson had a dominating season in 2021, winning 10 races and leading 2,581 laps.
Larson’s ability to adapt to different race cars bodes well for him in a repeat bid. Meanwhile, Elliott has something to prove. He was solid with two wins, but Larson outperformed him most of the year, even on the road courses.
With so many road courses, Martin Truex Jr. in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is third pick. As for the fourth driver, could we have a repeat of last year’s top four with Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 Toyota? It seems possible with the two organizations most likely to figure out the new car first.
Will Ford repeat in the Daytona 500?
Michael McDowell, driver of the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford, was the surprise winner of the 2021 Daytona 500, denying Hamlin’s bid to become the first driver to capture three straight wins in the “Great American Race.”
Looking at the speed charts, Harrison Burton in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford was fastest in January testing at Daytona. Any restrictor-plate race is hard to predict, but a pair of favorites going in should be Ryan Blaney in the No. 12 Team Penske Ford and Brad Keselowski who moved to the RFK No. 6 Ford.
The Fords have the early speed, but I believe either the Gibbs or Hendrick camp gets off to a roaring start with a Daytona victory.
Who will be rookie of the year?
Austin Cindric has to be favorite for the top rookie after taking over the Team Penske No. 2, which champion drivers such as Rusty Wallace, Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski piloted to 79 victories.
Burton is a popular pick, a Virginia driver with the Wood Brothers team which was founded in Stuart, Virginia. Another victory would be the 100th Cup Series win for the legendary team.
Justin Haley in the No. 31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet and Todd Gilliland in the No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford are big underdogs in the rookie battle.
How will the Food City Dirt Race go?
Bristol Motor Speedway hosted the first NASCAR Cup Series race on dirt in 50-plus years in 2021. It was the one setback for Larson, who entered as the pre-race favorite due to his dirt-track experience. It didn’t work out that way after he and co-favorite Christopher Bell were caught up in an early accident.
There were challenges for BMS and NASCAR, particularly with excessive mud caused by the rainy weather. Once the track dried out, there were extremely dusty conditions. The move to Sunday night should result in a better overall experience for both the live fans and those viewing on television.