Monday night was a tough one on the ice. We split the shot props but a 1-0 game nearly halfway through turned into a 6-5 shootout, leaving our under bet in the dust.
We’ll look to rebound with three more plays for Tuesday night’s pivotal Game 4.
Rangers (+150) @ Lightning (-180)
Although they still trail in the series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have progressively gotten better with each passing game.
The scoreline in G1 certainly didn’t suggest it, but the Lightning actually had the better of the scoring chances. Igor Shesterkin was fantastic while Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled mightily. It was pretty much as simple as that.
In Game 2, the Lightning’s share of the expected goals at five-on-five rose to 59.11%. They failed to beat Shesterkin once in that game state and fell just one puck short. Progress!
The Lightning followed that up with their best showing of the series. They controlled a whopping 68% of the expected goals and blanked the New York Rangers at five-on-five.
While the end result was still in doubt until the very end, the Lightning were rightfully rewarded for being the better side.
They have bounced back from losses – and less than ideal circumstances – whenever they’ve faced them throughout the postseason. This team will fight tooth and nail for everything. They know how big this game is and I expect they’ll rise to the occasion to even things up.
Look for the Lightning to pick up a scrappy win inside 60.
Bet: Lightning in regulation (-110)
Chris Kreider under 2.5 shots (-114)
Kreider is not generating shots with any consistency at all. He has mustered up just nine attempts through three games. While he burned us by coming through last time out, that was because all three of his attempts hit the net; generally not something that can be relied upon.
His line has caved in at five-on-five, which is part of the reason he was held to just one attempt in that game state. With the Lightning still in possession of home ice, there’s reason to believe it’ll be another tough game for him at full strength.
Kreider isn’t the featured shooter on the man advantage either. The Rangers have funneled anything and everything through Mika Zibanejad, and for good reason. The way Kreider gets his touches is by standing on top of the crease and banging at loose change if and when it becomes available. That’s not a reliable way to generate high shot volume, especially against a team like the Lightning.
That’s why Kreider has only hit three shots once through six games against the Lightning. He failed to record even two shots in four of the six meetings.
Priced at a near coin flip, there’s value in playing the under.
Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (+115)
Kucherov has been the standout shooter in this series. He’s attempted 26 shots through three games, good for an average of 8.66 per contest. Steven Stamkos (23) is the only other player on either side with more than 19 attempts, so Kucherov is the guy you want to back if you’re chasing heavy volume.
He has fared very well against the Rangers this season, generating at least seven shot attempts in three of the four meetings to date. Seven is about the sweet spot as far as confidently backing a player to hit the net four times in a game.
What I also love about Kucherov is the workload. He has played at least 20 minutes in nine of the last 10 games. With the team struggling to score on Shesterkin, they’re even more reliant on the big guns to keep them in the series.
Look for Kucherov to be heavily involved offensively once again.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.