Yet again, Edmonton Oilers enter the NHL Draft with a short stack

Article content

I’m not a gambling man, but having watched the recent NHL playoffs on TV I’m starting to pick up on the lingo. Take, for example, “short stack”. According to Wiktionary it means “a relatively small quantity of chips relative to the stakes” or alternately, “a quantity of chips which is far less than the average in the tournament”. Both definitions seem to apply every year to the Edmonton Oilers at the NHL Draft.

Article content

In the modern era the “tournament” in question consists of 7 rounds, so that’s the average number of picks per NHL team. By definition, each team starts out with 1 pick in each round, even as the order within that round is determined by the previous year’s results.

The last time the Oilers came away from the draft with as many as 7 new prospects was way back in 2017. Barring major unforeseen developments it’s not going to happen in 2022, where the Oilers are currently 3 picks shy of a full hand just days before the draft. As this post is being published the Oilers are already down a selection in both 2023 and 2024 as well. Borrowing from the future has become standard operating procedure in Oil Country.

Not to say that it’s always a bad strategy, mind. The Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche, as one shining example, are currently short no fewer than 8 picks in the next 3 years. With their club closing in on the ultimate prize, GM Joe Sakic took a “go for it” strategy, swapping future picks for a number of proven NHLers on expiring contracts.

Article content

Since the completion of the 2021 draft last July 23-24, the Avs gave up 1 or more future selections in acquiring Darcy Kuemper, Kurtis MacDermid, Josh Manson, Artturi Lehkonen and Andrew Cogliano. This on top of the brilliant deal 2 summers ago that brought Devon Toews to Colorado for the low low price of 2 late second-round picks.

If you want to check out what “all in” looks like in graphical form, the splendid Cap Friendly proffers this 3-year outlook of future draft picks:

Lots of greyed-out spaces denoting traded picks, and not a single one added from another team.

The Avs also parted company with several promising prospects of the recent past including Conor Timmins, Drew Helleson, Tyson Jost and Justin Barron. All 4 guys had been top-50 picks in their respective draft years, but were later used as trading chips in the build towards the Cup.

Article content

The Oilers on the other hand, have relatively few prospects to trade, one outcome of consistently trading away draft picks before they ever become prospects.

Let’s dig a little deeper into the local club’s performance in these areas during the Ken Holland era:

2019

Holland’s first year at the helm, with all trades shown here — 2 picks out, 1 in — on the record of Peter Chiarelli.

The Oilers’ own 7 picks are those with the orange background in the left most columns. Any additional rows with white backgrounds represent picks acquired by trade, as in the case of pick #85 in this draft, the return for the (second) Brandon Davidson trade out of Edmonton. But Chiarelli had also dealt his own 3rd and 5th rounders for 2 guys who combined to play 9 games for the Oil.

Article content

The draft itself is part of Holland’s own record. Some decent picks in here, even as they remain works in progress. As with the case with all of the drafts discussed here, it is too soon to know how the story will end for guys like Philip Broberg or Raphael Lavoie. Though in this case we do already know that 2 picks (late) in the top 100, Ilya Konovalov and Matej Blumel, are already out of here, and for no return.

2020

First year of full Holland. The Oilers again nabbed an impressive prospect in the first round in Dylan Holloway.  Having traded both their second and fourth round selections at the trade deadline, the Oilers entered the draft with just 5 picks, but added a 6th by trading down a third round pick for a fourth and a fifth. That worked out handsomely with a pair of excellent picks in Carter Savoie and Ty Tullio, both of whom are just turning pro in Bakersfield this upcoming season. But it sure had been a long wait between #14 and #100.

Article content

2021

For the second straight year the Oilers entered the fray with just 5 selections, having traded out the second, third and fifth rounders in 3 separate deals, all dating back to the 2019-20 season. Moreover all 3 men acquired in those deals had already played his last game in Edmonton by the time of the draft. There was a single incoming pick this time, the sixth rounder Holland was able to recover for unsigned John Marino, now an NHL regular in Pittsburgh.

Once again, the GM resorted to trading down, this time his first rounder, to add another arrow to his quiver. The swap set off a somewhat predictable storm of controversy in Oil Country as Minnesota used it to select hotshot netminder Jesper Wallstedt, a man many prospectophiles thought would look good in blue and orange

Article content

With the Oilers picking ever later in the first round as they climbed the standings and a further 2 spots lower after that trade,  Tyler Wright’s scouting staff came through with (what seems today) another strong first round pick in Xavier Bourgault followed by another long wait. Some decent prospects here, tough as it is to judge less than a year out.

2022

Which brings us to the present, or should I say the immediate future. The Oilers enter Draft Week with but a single pick in the top 150, having traded all of their second, third and fourth round selections for three different experienced left shot defencemen. One of them, Dmitry Kulikov, was already on his way out of Edmonton a year ago, the Oilers again having to borrow from the future due to a lack of current picks at the time of that trade.

Article content

The other 2 defenders are in limbo, with both men holding the hammer as to whether they will return to Edmonton. Duncan Keith has been given a little time to decide if he wants to play out the last year of his contract at a fraction of his actual cap hit, while Brett Kulak is set to become an Unrestricted Free Agent unless he sees fit to re-sign with the Oilers in the coming day.

Meanwhile those 3 draft picks are gone, and Day 2 of the Draft looks like a wasteland until at least noon. As usual the Oilers have hung on to their (or at least “a”) first round selection, a key asset to which Holland has clung fast each year despite temptations to move it. But I won’t be surprised if Holland conducts a reprise of a year ago by exchanging quality for quantity in a trade-down scenario.

Article content

One outcome however is that the Oilers’ GM will be severely hampered in making certain types of trades during the draft. He lacks both the draft capital and the cap space to add an impact player in the manner that Colorado once added Toews or division rival Los Angeles Kings nabbed Kevin Fiala the other day. Holland has a short stack in both of those crucial commodities.

2023

But wait! There’s more! The Oilers didn’t have their 2022 fourth rounder to trade at the deadline this past season, having dealt it in 2021 for Kulikov. So again they dipped into the future to rent in the present, cashing out the 2023 fourth rounder for a handful of marginally effective games from Derick Brassard.

2024

Even 2 years down the road, the Oilers are in a (tiny) deficit position, having included their 7th rounder from that distant day to finish off the Kulak trade. Best guess from this distance was that this was a sweetener added due to having to put a condition on the other pick they traded to Montreal, the 2022 second rounder. However, that pick was already tied up in another conditional deal, being promised to Chicago if the Oilers made the Stanley Cup Finals. So Montreal had to agree to wait a year for that second round pick if need be, but got a little extra in return.

Article content

Bottom line

Let’s start with the good news. The Oilers came within a round of having to pay off on that condition, winning 2 series before running into the eventual champs in Round 3. This marked the first year that one of those deadline trades significantly paid off, as Kulak played a significant role in solidifying the third defence pairing. Paid in full with not 1 but 2 future picks, but at least the player delivered.

It’s also encouraging to a degree that the GM is willing to go for it to improve his team. So far he has dealt no fewer than 10 draft picks in exchanges involving incoming players; on the other hand he has traded out a player for a pick just once.

And credit to the amateur scouts for coming up with some fine picks in their limited opportunities.

Article content

But… it’s concerning that the Oilers seem always to be dealing from a deficit position, frequently borrowing from next year’s cache of draft picks because this year’s were already dealt last year. Just in the Holland era, the Oilers have traded away a pick more than a year into the future in the deals for Neal**, Athanasiou, Ennis, Kulikov, Keith, Kulik. More than once they’ve paid a little compound interest to the team having to wait for that pick, or for having to insert conditions to avoid clashes with other deals.

Here is the Oilers draft future using that same feature from Cap Friendly:

Put into words, the Oilers enter this crucial 3-year window already down 5 future draft picks, with only Duncan Keith remaining on the team to show for it. Whether one views those picks as draft capital or trade capital, that’s a significant hole.

Article content

For all of Holland’s eagerness to add veteran depth at the trade deadline, Draft Day is a different story altogether due to that persistent short stack. The Oilers have barely any picks to trade. Such swaps as they have made at or around the draft involved trading down to address that deficit as opposed to dealing for real NHL players.

What can be done differently in 2022? Trade the first rounder? Trade some bona fide prospects? That stack too is a little short due to the repetitive absence of second, third, fourth round selections on an annual basis. In the Holland era (2019 excluded), the Oilers have traded out 7 of their 9 picks in that range, with an 8th already committed elsewhere in 2023.

For all the veteran GM’s reputation for patience, a strong case can be made that he’s not exactly waiting around. Whether that’s a good or bad thing, only time will tell.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: Does Oilers’ hockey ops shuffle signal a change in philosophy? 9 Things 

STAPLES: Darnell Nurse, value contract? He has been until now

McCURDY: Rebel without a crease? Mike Smith ponders future

STAPLES: Puljujarvi trade talk gaining steam