Over the last couple of decades, the value of NFL contracts has exploded. It used to be a shocking feat for a quarterback to make over $100 million. Now, one — Patrick Mahomes — is on a deal that pays him $500 million.
The burgeoning quarterback market isn’t the only one that has increased significantly across the NFL. Plenty of pass rushers are getting nine-figure deals along with top defenders at other premium positions like cornerback.
Meanwhile, numerous receivers across the NFL including Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel have worked to reset that market as well. It now seems that $20 million per year will mark the bare minimum offered by a team to a No. 1 receiver.
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Indeed, NFL teams simply can’t wait to pay hefty sums for top-tier talents, and some will be worth it. However, others see their value inflated, and that causes certain teams to pay through the nose for them. That creates some poor contract values that are often doled out to declining superstars or potential-packed players that simply plateau earlier than expected.
Often, it’s hard to see these contract busts coming. However, there are always a few instances in which even fans will know right away that a team overpaid for someone. Those contracts often end up busting and usually rank among the worst valued deals in the NFL.
Which players are on that list in 2022? Here’s a breakdown of the NFL’s current worst contracts and how they might impact teams in this season and beyond.
MORE: NFL’s 25 highest-paid players for 2022
Worst NFL contracts of 2022
QB Deshaun Watson, Browns
- Total contract value: $230 million
- AAV: $46 million
- Total guarantees: $230 million (100 percent)
Watson’s deal was a head-scratcher from the minute that the Browns inked him to it. Sure, Watson is just 26 and is a talented quarterback, but he has massive off-the-field concerns stemming from accusations of sexual assault and misconduct that brought his status for the 2022 NFL season into question.
Ultimately, Watson was suspended 11 games after the NFL’s investigation into his violation of the league’s personal conduct policy. As such, the Browns will only have Watson on the field for six regular-season contests; they are still paying him $45,367,500 in 2022, so that means he will make $7,561,250 per game in 2022 if Cleveland fails to make the playoffs.
Some will be quick to point out that the Browns structured Watson’s contract so that his cap hit will be just $9,395,500 this season. That is true, but they are still set to pay him nearly $46 million this season. Why is that? Because Cleveland is still on the hook for Watson’s entire $44,965,000 signing bonus this year. His suspension will not impact that amount; he will only forfeit part of his base salary — $632,500, to be exact.
So, while Watson’s deal might not hurt Cleveland from a cap standpoint in 2022, it will still cost them a large sum of cash without much of a return. And in the long term, the fully guaranteed deal comes with a significant risk considering that Watson has ample off-the-field baggage.
MORE: Why a suspension doesn’t impact Deshaun Watson’s contract very much
QB Carson Wentz, Commanders
- Total contract value: $128 million
- AAV: $32 million
- Total guarantees: $66.5 million (52 percent)
Wentz’s contract isn’t nearly as risky as that of Watson’s. In fact, the Commanders can move on from Wentz without any cap penalty should he struggle in 2022. But still, it’s hard to feel too inspired by his performance in recent seasons.
Wentz has posted solid numbers over the last four seasons, but he isn’t the same, elite player that he was when he made the Pro Bowl in 2017. At that time, it seemed like he was destined for long-term success before an ACL tear prematurely ended a potential MVP campaign. Now, he’s clearly a middle-tier quarterback at best.
Since 2018, Wentz has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for an average of 3,324 yards, 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Again, those numbers are decent, but his record is just 26-29-1 in those contests overall. He also has never won a playoff game, as he went 1 of 4 passing for 3 yards before exiting with a concussion in his lone postseason start.
Wentz should be an upgrade at quarterback for Washington, but can he make them a playoff team? He struggled at the end of last season for the Colts and was part of the reason the team was unable to emerge victoriously in a win-and-in game against the Jaguars in Week 18. That prompted Indianapolis to trade him after just one season.
Even if Wentz does bounce back, he probably shouldn’t be the 12th-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL in terms of AAV. The contract he signed was based on his potential, and he simply hasn’t lived up to it. yet.
QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans
- Total contract value: $118 million
- AAV: $29.5 million
- Total guarantees: $62 million (52.5 percent)
The Tannehill deal is similar to the Wentz deal, though the Titans quarterback has found a bit more success in recent years. He has helped guide Tennessee to three consecutive playoff appearances, but his problem with turnovers has cost the team dearly at times.
Tannehill threw 14 interceptions last season and his interception percentage of 2.6 was tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL. His problem with picks was on full display against the Bengals in the postseason, as Tannehill tossed three costly picks that ultimately cost the Titans a chance to go to the AFC Championship Game. The loss also left Tannehill with a “deep scar.”
Tannehill has posted a 30-13 record as a regular-season starter with the Titans, so he has proven that he can lead a team to victory. Still, that Tennessee opted to pay him nearly $30 million per year has hamstrung the team a bit and caused it to lose some key members, including receiver A.J. Brown, guard Rodger Saffold and tackle David Quessenberry.
With those key starters gone, Tannehill now will face a test and need to carry his team a bit more than usual. It may be hard for the solid game manager to do that, and if he slips up, the team can point to his contract as depleting the team’s resources. That could prove to be one of the driving factors behind the team’s potential regression.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
- Total contract value: $90 million
- AAV: $15 million
- Total guarantees: $28.05 million (31.2 percent)
The Cowboys signed Elliott to a six-year contract extension just before the 2019 NFL season began. It made sense at the time, as he had led the NFL in carries (304) and rushing yards (1,434) for the second time in his three NFL seasons. The deal made him Dallas’ long-term workhorse, but he hasn’t exactly lived up to it.
Elliott has declined slowly but surely in the three seasons since signing his extension. He posted a Pro Bowl season in 2019 but over the last two seasons, he hasn’t been as efficient. He also hasn’t been as much of a workhorse, as he has split carries with Tony Pollard at times.
| Years | Rush yards per game | Yards per carry |
| 2016-19 | 96.5 | 4.6 |
| 2020-21 | 61.9 | 4.1 |
Elliott’s numbers over the last two seasons have fallen into the category of fine. He produced a 1,002-yard season in 2021 and scored 12 total touchdowns. That said, his contract makes him the third-highest-paid running back in terms of AAV league-wide. Suffice to say, he is no longer that type of player, so his $18.2 million cap hit he is set to have in 2022 seems like an overpay.
FANTASY FOOTBALL: Is Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard the better value pick in 2022?
WR Kenny Golladay, Giants
- Total contract value: $72 million
- AAV: $18 million
- Total guarantees: $28 million (38.9 percent)
Through one season in New York, the Kenny Golladay experiment has been a massive failure. The Giants signed the 6-4, 213-pound receiver to serve as a true No. 1 receiver and red-zone threat for Daniel Jones. Instead, they have gotten a frustratingly inefficient starter.
Golladay totaled just 37 catches for 521 yards in 14 games for the Giants last year. Despite his huge frame, he caught zero touchdown passes. It became a running joke among NFL writers, who loved to point out that certain offensive linemen had more scores than he did.
Lane Johnson has more touchdowns than Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this season. #Eagles
— Mike Kaye (@mike_e_kaye) December 26, 2021
It’s bad enough that Golladay couldn’t score, but according to Pro Football Focus, Golladay’s quarterbacks had a passer rating of just 49.9 when targeting him. He may have logged just one drop, but he did little to endear himself to the Giants quarterbacks and their fans.
Golladay’s deal is only the 19th-most expensive at the receiver spot in wake of an offseason of significant spending at the position. Still, it’s far too much for him, and unless he can regain the 2019 form that saw him catch a league-high 11 touchdowns, he will continue to be a lemon for the Giants.
WR Christian Kirk, Jaguars
- Total contract value: $72 million
- AAV: $18 million
- Total guarantees: $37 million (51.4 percent)
Kirk’s deal is actually worth up to $84 million, but its base value pays him at almost exactly the same rate as Golladay. The only difference is that a higher percentage of Kirk’s deal is guaranteed.
Kirk actually looks like a good fit for the Jaguars on paper. He has deep speed which is something the team lacked after DJ Chark was injured last season. Trevor Lawrence loves throwing the deep ball, and Kirk should have a chance to catch some big downfield passes.
That said, Kirk had his share of issues with drops in 2021. He caught 12 passes of 20-plus yards from Kyler Murray but he dropped four of that same distance. If his hands continue to give him trouble, he will be nothing more than an inconsistent deep threat.
As it stands, Kirk has high-end upside but has never exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Nor has he totaled more than six touchdowns in a single campaign. The Jaguars are paying him to be a No. 1 receiver, so he will need to improve upon those marks if he is to live up to this high-value deal.
MORE: Christian Kirk resets the WR market with massive Jaguars contract
TE David Njoku, Browns
- Total contract value: $54.75 million
- AAV: $13,687,500
- Total guarantees: $17 million (31.1 percent)
The Browns made Njoku the fifth-highest-paid tight end in terms of AAV during the 2022 NFL offseason. The decision was a questionable one.
Njoku simply hasn’t been all that productive with the Browns over the course of his career. He has spent five seasons with the team and averaged 39 catches, 459 yards and four touchdowns per 17 games played.
Those numbers are solid, but they simply don’t compare with the 17-game averages of other top-paid tight ends over the last five years.
| Player | AAV | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| George Kittle | $15 million | 85 | 1,139 | 5 |
| Travis Kelce | $14.3 million | 105 | 1,339 | 9 |
| Dallas Goedert* | $14.25 million | 58 | 684 | 5 |
| Mark Andrews* | $14 million | 72 | 950 | 8 |
| David Njoku | $13.7 million | 39 | 459 | 4 |
*Goedert and Andrews have each been in the league since 2018, so their averages span four years worth of data.
It’s possible that Njoku could break out during his age-26 season, especially since Kevin Stefanski loves using multi-tight end sets. Still, the Browns are paying him based on his potential, not on his previous production. That’s certainly a gamble.
TE Taysom Hill, Saints
- Total contract value: $40 million
- AAV: $10 million
- Total guarantees: $10.1 million (25.3 percent)
The Saints once thought Hill was their quarterback of the future. Now, the 32-year-old is their tight end of the present — and an overpaid one at that.
When the Saints inked Hill to a deal, there was an escalator in his contract that would have paid him more if he became a long-term quarterback. That experiment has now been abandoned and as a result, he is one of 11 tight ends in the league making more than $10 million annually.
Hill has caught just 34 career passes for 388 yards and seven touchdowns over five seasons. Perhaps he can become a consistent red-zone threat as he was in 2019 thanks to his solid, 6-2 frame. Still, it seems like New Orleans overpaid for his services, as they thought they were getting a quarterback on the cheap instead of a high-priced tight end.
G Andrus Peat, Saints
- Total contract value: $57.5 million
- AAV: $11.5 million
- Total guarantees: $23 million (40 percent)
If you were to only look at Pro Bowl appearances, you would assume that Peat is among the best guards in the NFL. However, his performance hasn’t been as good as the public perception surrounding him.
Peat played just 303 snaps for the Saints last season but still allowed three sacks and 14 pressures on 150 pass-blocking snaps. His PFF pass-blocking grade of 20.1 was the worst among players to play at least 50 snaps last season.
Peat has routinely had his share of issues in pass protection and has surrendered at least three sacks in six of his seven seasons. He has also missed a lot of time with injuries, so per 17 games, he is allowing an average of 4.9 sacks. That’s far too many for a guard.
There are things to like about Peat. He has great size on his 6-7 frame and has experience in New Orleans’ offense. However, he shouldn’t be the seventh-highest-paid guard in the NFL; that’s simply too much considering the routine pressure that he allows.
MORE: NFL’s highest-paid defensive players for 2022
DL Leonard Williams, Giants
- Total contract value: $63 million
- AAV: $21 million
- Total guarantees: $45 million (71.4 percent)
Williams has certainly found new life after being traded from the Jets to the Giants. He has 18.5 sacks in 41 games with the Giants after posting 17 in 71 with the Jets. So, he has certainly found his stride and become a quality starter.
But is Williams worth $21 million annually with more than 70 percent of his contract fully guaranteed? Probably not.
The only interior defensive lineman in the NFL that is compensated at a higher rate than Williams is Aaron Donald. Williams outpaces the likes of Chris Jones, Jonathan Allen, Vita Vea, Kenny Clark and Grady Jarrett despite being close in age to all of them.
Even DeForest Buckner, who is just 95 days older than Williams, is making less in guaranteed money than Williams. This is despite the fact that Buckner has been named an AP All-Pro and has 45 career sacks compared to Williams’ 35.5.
Williams is a solid starter, but he is probably being compensated most similarly to Allen, who is making $18 million annually and $33.1 million in guarantees. As such, the contract that the Giants gave Williams is certainly an overpay.
LB C.J. Mosley, Jets
- Total contract value: $85 million
- AAV: $17 million
- Total guarantees: $43 million (50.6 percent)
Mosley’s time with the Jets has been a major disappointment. In his first two seasons with the team, he played in just two total games and made nine tackles.
Last season, Mosley was able to play 16 games and made 168 tackles (103 solo). However, he also missed 17 tackles during the season, or roughly 9.2 percent of his tackling attempts according to PFF. So, his strong numbers were a bit of a mirage.
Mosley also struggled in coverage. He had just two pass defenses and opposing quarterbacks logged an astronomical passer rating of 116.3 against him, per PFF. It seems that injuries and age (30) have caused him to lose a step, and it’s hard to imagine that he will regain it at this point.
The Jets also can’t release Mosley without taking a massive hit. He has a $17.5 million cap hit this season but if they release him, the team will absorb a dead cap hit of $20.5 million. As such, it’s actually cheaper for the Jets to keep him around, so he will remain a starter in New York for at least one more year.
S Jamal Adams, Seahawks
- Total contract value: $70 million
- AAV: $17.5 million
- Total guarantees: $21 million (30 percent)
The final three players on this list all have ties to the Jets. Adams was selected by the team with the sixth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. He began his career as a superstar, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together in recent seasons.
Adams was a strong pass rusher in 2020 and managed 9.5 sacks during his first season with the Seahawks. However, during that season, he allowed a passer rating of 121.7 to opposing quarterbacks and failed to log an interception.
Adams was able to change that last season by grabbing two interceptions and logging five pass defenses in 12 games. But this time, his pass rushing skills dropped off, as he recorded zero sacks and just seven pressures after recording 34 pressures the year before.
Adams could put everything together again, but he has certainly been a disappointment since Seattle traded for him. He was once the highest-paid safety in the league– now he checks in at No. 3. That’s still a bit much for a safety whose coverage skills have waned in recent years.
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