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    NHL goalie confidence meter 2022-23: Our early-season ratings for all 32 teams

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    Just two weeks into the 2022-23 NHL season, goaltending fires are already blazing in high-expectation markets.

    In Toronto, Matt Murray’s injury has thrust Ilya Samsonov into a bigger role than the Maple Leafs imagined. In Colorado, the reigning champion Avalanche are adjusting to a new, unproven No. 1 in Alexandar Georgiev, with mixed results. In Minnesota, Marc-Andre Fleury set off alarm bells early as the Wild gave up 20 goals over their first three games, the most in the NHL in 33 years.

    Which teams are panicking? Which are feeling like they have the advantage in net? And which are still trying to figure out what they have?

    The Athletic asked its writers for a way-too-early confidence reading on each team’s goaltending. Here’s what they said, on a scale from 5 (Vezina caliber) to 1 (AHL quality).

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    The early numbers for John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz aren’t eye-popping this season, but it’s been more a function of Anaheim’s decidedly leaky play in front of them than a function of bad goaltending. The Ducks took a step forward Thursday in holding Boston to one goal over 65 minutes, with Gibson stopping 35 of 36 shots. Improvement from forwards and defensemen in the Anaheim zone should result in better numbers for Gibson and Stolarz. — Eric Stephens

    Rating: 2 – It can be a bit sieve-like

    Most nights, for the Coyotes to have any chance to win, they need their goaltender to be their best player, because they don’t have any elite offensive or defensive difference-makers to fall back on. Karel Vejmelka gave them the boost they needed on occasion last year and is capable of doing it again this year. He is used to seeing a high shot volume and endless Grade A chances. Back-up Connor Ingram is still an unknown quantity; he was just so-so in his debut. — Eric Duhatschek

    Boston Bruins

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    Is there a 3.5 category? Linus Ullmark has been very good after three starts. He’s at a .938 all-situations save percentage and 2.0 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck. He’s been far sharper at the start of this season than 2021-22, when he was transitioning from Buffalo. Conversely, Jeremy Swayman (.816 save percentage, 3.6 goals fewer saved than expected) has work to do. He’s been leaky over two starts. He didn’t have a sharp preseason either. — Fluto Shinzawa

    Buffalo Sabres

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Goaltending has been a big reason for the Sabres’ early success. Craig Anderson was solid in Game 1 and helped steal a win against the Senators. And Eric Comrie has since had back-to-back 40-save efforts in wins over Edmonton and Calgary. Buffalo has a five-on-five save percentage of .950, which is right near the top of the league. Goaltending has been a strength. — Matthew Fairburn

    Calgary Flames

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    This is a tough one, because we’re talking about a goalie in Jacob Markstrom who finished second in Vezina voting last year, but two weeks into this season, he hasn’t looked all that sharp. The Flames have yet to see him at his best as he has battled through an illness in the first week of the season and then let in three goals on 12 shots against Buffalo on Thursday before being pulled for Dan Vladar. Through three starts, Markstrom has allowed 8 goals against and has allowed nearly two goals (1.71) more than expected. He has a minus-2.33 goals-saved-above-average rate. It’s not great and certainly not what we are used to. Meanwhile, Vladar has a win over the rival Oilers and supposedly will be used once a week to ensure he stays fresh. In a show of faith, the team even gave him with a two-year contract extension, through 2025. The Flames are still 3-1-0 to start the season, and Markstrom has enough of a track record for us to assume he will be OK. For the record: His first two games last season were pretty meh, as well, and then he fired off four shutouts over his next seven starts. For now, I guess we have to go with No. 3. But check back in a few weeks! — Hailey Salvian and Julian McKenzie

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    The Hurricanes only allowed one goal in each of their first three games, getting solid performances in net from both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. Thursday’s game in Edmonton showed a bit more vulnerability — Andersen had a turnover that led to an open-net goal and failed to make stops in a couple of key moments in a 6-4 loss. Still, Andersen has been reliable and unflappable since coming to Carolina, and Raanta has to be considered one of hockey’s top No. 2 goalies. Concerns about durability lurk in the background, but the team also has a top-flight prospect in Pyotr Kochetkov. — Cory Lavalette

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Given their recent injury/health history, the Blackhawks’ goaltending duo of Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock came into this season with plenty of questions surrounding them. Mrazek leaving Friday’s win over the Red Wings with an injury might have renewed those fears, but in terms of play on the ice, so far this duo has answered any questions pretty confidently. Through three games, Mrazek and Stalock were both among the top 20 goalies in the league in goals saved above average, and Stalock stopped 10 of 10 shots he faced in relief of Mrazek against Detroit. We’ll see how that unfolds over time, but it’s a solid start. — Scott Powers

    Colorado Avalanche

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    Alexandar Georgiev has been better than his .893 save percentage suggests — the Avalanche’s struggling penalty kill has done him no favors — but he’s still unproven as a starter. Pavel Francouz has shown himself to be a reliable No. 2 and is coming off a season in which he won six playoff games, including all four in the Western Conference final. — Peter Baugh

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    The season got off to a rough start. No. 1 Elvis Merzlikins caught the flu the week of the opener, and with backup Joonas Korpisalo still recovering from hip surgery last spring, the job fell to Daniil Tarasov. Tarasov was more than adequate in two starts, and Merzlikins has been mostly fine since he returned to live action. They have not stolen any wins, but they haven’t been to blame for any losses, either. This is not an easy club to play goal for, but the netminding is way down on the list of concerns at the start of the season. — Aaron Portzline

    Rating: 5 – Vezina caliber

    So far this season, among goaltenders who have started at least two games, Jake Oettinger ranks first in the NHL in save percentage (.966) and first in goals-against average (1.00). The next best figures in those categories are from Tristan Jarry at .952 and 1.67, respectively. While those numbers are likely unsustainable, Oettinger’s play has picked up right where it left off in the team’s playoff series against the Flames. Based on the first two weeks of the season, the Stars don’t have anything to worry about in net. Additionally, backup goaltender Scott Wedgewood started his first game of the season Thursday and stopped 40 of 43 shots in Toronto. — Saad Yousuf

    Detroit Red Wings

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    They started great, with Ville Husso and Alex Nedeljkovic turning in big performances in the opening weekend, including a shutout for Husso. But recent overtime losses to Los Angeles and Chicago showed reason to pump the breaks. The fact that they now have two talented young netminders is reason for optimism that Red Wings should be improved in goal, but as the season’s first week showed, consistency will make or break them. — Max Bultman

    Edmonton Oilers

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Jack Campbell‘s performance to start the season has been uneven. The bad: being pulled after allowing four goals on 11 shots — with little help in front of him — in the first act of the Battle of Alberta. The good: making timely stops in wins over the Canucks and Hurricanes. There’s nothing to worry about just yet, but more is expected of him. He expects more of himself, too. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    Florida is basically in the middle of the team save percentage table (.905), and that’s thanks mainly to one start by Spencer Knight, a 24-of-27 performance against Buffalo that the Panthers won. Starter Sergei Bobrovsky has been fine (.916 save percentage, 13th in the NHL with 2.43 goals saved above expected) without any meltdowns thus far, but it’s tough to give the pairing anything better than a satisfactory grade thus far. If this is the caliber of goaltending we see league-wide all season, though, we’ll have to adjust upward. — Sean Gentille

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    The rating comes with a bit of a qualifier as Jonathan Quick is keeping it from falling lower. Quick hasn’t been lights out by any means, but he hasn’t cost them games, and Cal Petersen’s struggles in the exhibitions and his first three starts are causing some pause. Kings coach Todd McLellan pointed him out Thursday night after three goals on nine shots against Pittsburgh got him an early hook. L.A.’s team play can be tighter, but Petersen needs to right the ship, especially if Quick can’t mimic his resurgent 2021-22 season. — Eric Stephens

    Minnesota Wild

    Rating: 2 – It can be a bit sieve-like

    The Wild had major goaltending issues in their first three games. Marc-Andre Fleury gave up seven in the opener, was pulled in the second game, and Filip Gustavsson struggled in Minnesota’s third game, including muffing a dump-in. The encouraging news is how good Fleury looked in Thursday’s overtime win. “Fantastic,” coach Dean Evason said. But goaltending will be something to watch with Wild as season goes. It could derail a season with high expectations. — Joe Smith

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    The overall defensive results have been better than expected out of the gate, and No. 1 goalie Jake Allen has had a say in this. Allen might not steal games, but he consistently keeps the Canadiens in the fight, and the new two-year deal he signed during camp reflects the high level of confidence the organization has in him. Backup Sam Montembeault tends to give up bad goals every now and then, and a more competitive team would probably look for an upgrade, but the outlook this season in Montreal gives him a much longer leash. — Marc Antoine Godin

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Giving up 17 goals in regulation in a four-game stretch, the last two of them losses requiring blown two-goal leads in the third period, is anything but solid. But this team has defensive-zone-coverage/costly-giveaway issues. The goaltenders have had little to no chance on most of those goals. Juuse Saros will be one of the best in the league (if he gets any help), and backup Kevin Lankinen has been a pleasant surprise so far. — Joe Rexrode

    Rating: 2 – It can be a bit sieve-like

    The Devils have gotten two legitimately good periods of goaltending this season. That’s about it. The reason New Jersey was so successful in its fourth game of the season was that they kept the goalie (Mackenzie Blackwood) as protected as possible with speed and skill in front of the blue paint. As impressive as that performance was, it’s not exactly the most sustainable. The team in front of the net has the chops, in theory; now they just need Blackwood and/or Vitek Vanecek to do their part with average goaltending. — Shayna Goldman

    New York Islanders

    Rating: 5 – Vezina caliber

    Despite losing two of his first three games, Ilya Sorokin looks primed to make a run at the Vezina, picking up where he left off last season when he emerged as one of the best in the league. Backup Semyon Varlamov remains a solid No. 2, and he got his feet wet with a win over the Ducks in his one and only start. The Islanders will need both of them, particularly over the next few weeks as the skaters acclimatize themselves to coach Lane Lambert’s systemic tweaks. — Kevin Kurz

    Rating: 5 – Vezina caliber

    Well … they do have the reigning Vezina winner. Igor Shesterkin hasn’t put up award-winning numbers yet, but the Rangers are scoring enough that they don’t yet need him to be Superman in net. And he’s still saving a goal above expectation on high-danger chances against, so he may be just dry-cleaning the cape for now. — Arthur Staple

    Ottawa Senators

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    With Cam Talbot sidelined this month, Anton Forsberg has delivered stable and consistent goaltending for the Senators. His save percentage (.903) and goals-against average (3.03) might not be impressive, but those numbers are reflective of a wild 7-5 game that Ottawa managed to win. If he can keep delivering this same level of goaltending until Talbot returns, the team should be in great shape to finally have that desired 1-2 punch in the crease. — Ian Mendes

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Carter Hart’s leaguewide reputation has dipped a bit in recent years, but I don’t think that’s fair. He openly struggled with the mental challenges of the pandemic in 2020-21, and his metrics were quite strong in 2021-22 — while backstopping an awful club — until his last few starts, when he was playing through injury. In other words, he’s still a perfectly solid, true-talent goalie. And so far this season, he’s been even better than that, holding a .943 save percentage through his first three starts and standing as the biggest reason for the Flyers’ strong 3-1-0 record. Is Hart going to remain this good? Almost certainly not, though if he does, the Flyers will likely make an improbable push toward a playoff spot. Teams with goalies that stop 94 percent of the shots don’t lose too often. At the very least, though, Hart is sending a reminder to the NHL that he remains a quality netminder — and one of the Flyers’ few legitimate roster strengths. — Charlie O’Connor

    Pittsburgh Penguins

    Rating: 5 – Vezina caliber

    Tristan Jarry has the physical ability to be one of hockey’s best goaltenders and appears to be on the verge of entering the top tier, off to his best start to a season and showing signs of maturing into a gem. He has allowed only five goals in three games and stopped 39 of 40 shots against the Kings on Thursday. Casey DeSmith, incidentally, was also stellar in his only performance and is generally a notch or two above dependable. The issue for both is how healthy they can stay, but when they’re available — as they have been so far — they seem to be finding a higher level than in previous seasons. — Josh Yohe and Rob Rossi

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    A lot has gone wrong for the Sharks, but goaltending is not on the list. James Reimer has been outstanding and became the first goalie to “break serve” and get an extra start after alternating with Kaapo Kahkonen. He has kept San Jose in games where it has been outplayed. Kahkonen’s two starts have just been OK, but the team’s overall goaltending depth is also better than it has been in a while. — Corey Masisak

    Rating: 1 – AHL quality

    There wasn’t a ton of confidence in Philipp Grubauer coming into the season after last year’s disaster, but he did have a chance to prove that 2021-22 was an outlier after having put up Vezina-like numbers in Colorado. The fact that Seattle now has some scoring support was working in his favor, too. But an .860 save percentage so far isn’t inspiring confidence in a comeback, and an injury sustained last night in Colorado puts his season on hold. There’s no update on his status so far. That leaves the net to Martin Jones, which drops the confidence meter even lower. Joey Daccord, however, could bring some intrigue if promoted. — Shayna Goldman

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    The Blues haven’t played many games — Saturday’s matinee in Edmonton will be just their third of the season — but No. 1 netminder Jordan Binnington has been electric early. The big question coming into the season was whether he could pick up where he left off in the 2022 playoffs, and he has. The Blues were hoping for this to be the case, considering he has five years left on his six-year, $36 million deal. New backup Thomas Greiss has yet to appear in a game, but that’s good news because it means Binnington is playing well. — Jeremy Rutherford

    Rating: 5 – Vezina caliber

    If there’s one team that shouldn’t worry about its goaltending, it’s the Lightning. Andrei Vasilevskiy is arguably the best in the world, and Brian Elliott has played well as a backup in 2021. Vasilevskiy helped end Tampa Bay’s skid Friday by stopping 36 of 38 shots in an overtime win over Florida. He’s a big reason the Lightning should still be Cup contenders even with key offseason departures. — Joe Smith

    Toronto Maple Leafs

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    Ilya Samsonov has been steady so far. He’s won his first three starts with the Maple Leafs and has, for the time being anyway, quieted some of the serious concern that arose when Matt Murray suffered an injury days after his first start with the team. It’s still too early to make much of anything, though, when it comes to the Leafs’ goaltending. Samsonov has yet to prove he can be a reliable No. 1 (or even 1B) in the NHL, and Murray won’t be back for a while. Can Samsonov keep this up for another month? Can he keep it up all season? Can Murray get healthy? Can he stay healthy? Can Murray perform adequately? The question marks in goal will undoubtedly linger all season. — Jonas Siegel

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Thatcher Demko is not the reason the Canucks are losing, but he also isn’t playing up to our sky-high expectations of him, posting an .861 save percentage with an 0-3-1 record. Demko was the Canucks’ best player last season, though, so the confidence level in him should remain high. Even if he regresses somewhat, he’s likely to have an extended stretch carrying this team and is, without question, one of its unqualified strengths. The bigger problem for the Canucks is that they just don’t have enough answers for those blips when Demko isn’t performing. Spencer Martin’s a bit of a wild card since he hasn’t been an NHL backup before, but he’s looked decent whenever he’s gotten into games. — Thomas Drance and Harman Dayal

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Goaltending was the Golden Knights’ biggest question mark entering the season, with the team leaning on the inexperienced duo of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, but to this point, it has been a pleasant surprise. Both have done what they’ve been asked, giving Vegas a chance to win every night, and Thompson has exceeded expectations with some sensational saves. It’s still really early, so I’m not ready to crown them “Vezina caliber,” but I think “rock solid” has been a perfect descriptor for Thompson and Hill. There’s plenty of optimism around the Golden Knights’ goalies, especially with Thompson’s impressive start. — Jesse Granger

    Rating: 4 – Rock solid

    Darcy Kuemper’s numbers (2-2-0, .902 save percentage, 3.04 goals-against average) don’t look so hot after his first four starts in D.C. In his case, though, stats don’t tell the entire story. Washington’s big free-agent signing has been the victim of a couple of weird bounces, and it should also be noted that the defensive pairs recently received a rare shakeup in an effort to generate a “spark.” New backup Charlie Lindgren (0-1-0, .923, 3.18), meanwhile, was good in his first start, a 3-2 loss to former Caps netminder Ilya Samsonov in Toronto. Bottom line: It’s super early and Kuemper has a long track record of excellence. No need to be too concerned — yet. — Tarik El-Bashir

    Rating: 3 – Not great, but not killing them

    Connor Hellebuyck is off to an excellent start and David Rittich isn’t. That’s the story in Winnipeg. Three games, two wins, a .922 save percentage, and a strong showing in Evolving-Hockey’s goals-saved-above-expected metric are numbers reminiscent of Hellebuyck’s 58-game, Vezina Trophy-winning performance in 2019-20. Limiting Hellebuyck to 58 games this season would take more confidence in Rittich, who gave up four goals in the first period against Vegas on Thursday. That said, the video of those goals against — other than his awful giveaway to Jack Eichel — is kinder to Rittich than to his team. Don’t count on him but don’t count him out yet, either. — Murat Ates

    (Top photo of Marc-Andre Fleury: Brace Hemmelgarn / USA Today)

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