In Week 11 the Green Bay Packers were facing a defense in the Tennessee Titans that has been putrid against the pass and superb against the run. The blueprint seemed simple enough: Give running back Aaron Jones his touches regardless, but also pick apart a secondary littered with injuries and inexperience.
Instead, quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a fairly miserable night, missing on multiple throws while Jones and the running game were bottled up.
After beating Dallas the week prior there were some who thought that win could spark a run for the Packers. The Titans made sure that didn’t happen and, in the process, limited a lot of the key contributors on Green Bay’s offense.
Now the Packers will face a stout defense in Philadelphia while the Eagles’ offense features plenty of playmakers that will make life difficult for Green Bay.
From a fantasy football perspective, there’s plenty to keep tabs on in this one.
Let’s dive into this Packers-Eagles Sunday night contest and look at some of those fantasy plays.
Hurts can get it done with his legs and his arm which makes him lock most weeks in all fantasy formats. Green Bay has fared well against opposing quarterbacks, giving up the 11th-fewest points on average in fantasy football, but they haven’t faced a threat like Hurts. The dual-threat quarterback has just one interception in his last six games with 15 combined touchdowns. Last week against the Colts, Indianapolis was able to bottle up the passing game of Philly for large chunks of the game, but it opened the door on the ground for Hurts, who ran for 86 yards and a touchdown. The key here for the Packers is the absence of outside linebacker Rashan Gary, who’s out for the year with a torn ACL. His presence could’ve shifted this matchup somewhat but without him Hurts should feast. Hurts is an easy play this weekend in all fantasy formats.
Even though Sanders’ production strictly comes via the ground game and he isn’t a top tier back, he’s facing Green Bay’s run defense. To its credit, the Packers made Titans running back Derrick Henry earn every single yard he got on the ground in Week 11, but it led to a massive night for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In this one, there’s going to be so many weapons for the Packers to worry about that Sanders could fly under the radar, putting him in the “don’t think twice” section. Sanders has scored at least one touchdown in half of Philadelphia’s games this year and has eclipsed 71 yards rushing in six of 10. To really stamp home the point, Green Bay’s defense is No. 26 in average points given up per week to opposing running backs.
The rushing yards were tough to come by against the Titans but Jones made up for it with six receptions. In PPR leagues and contests, that bodes really well for a running back. Even with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, Jones is still far and away the best option on offense for the Packers. Against the Eagles, and anyone else, he should see a minimum of 20 touches if Green Bay hopes to establish some success on offense. For as good as the defensive front is for the Eagles, they rank just 18th in points yielded to opposing running backs in fantasy. Start Jones and don’t even debate it.
He’s been as good as advertised when the Eagles decided to trade for him in the offseason and this will be a fascinating matchup for Brown depending on how often he’s lined up across from Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. What works in Brown’s favor is that Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry has been very reluctant to have Alexander shadow the opposing team’s top wideout, citing that it goes against his preferred scheme. With that expected to remain the case, Brown has a high floor against Green Bay. Brown has gone for at least 59 yards in eight of 10 games and has six touchdowns on the season as well. He also has at least five receptions in seven games making the volume ever present.
Packers WR Christian Watson
Watson gets elevated this week after scoring five touchdowns in the last two weeks. While expecting that level of production to continue is unrealistic, it’s become apparent that Watson is becoming a favorite target of Rodgers. His home run ability on any given play already makes Watson a tempting play every week but against the Titans, Watson showed his ability to be more than that, racking up two touchdowns despite having just 48 yards receiving on the night. While the playoff picture looks bleak for the Packers, one of the main things they need to do the rest of the way is continuing to feed Watson to keep his development on track. He has a high floor against the Eagles despite Philly’s solid pass defense.
Lazard has been a model of consistency all season long. He’s scored a touchdown in more than half the games he’s played in and has at least four receptions in all but two games. While Lazard isn’t likely to explode for 100 or more yards with a touchdown, the floor is always pretty high. In a game the Packers could be trailing early and often they may have to rely more on the passing game which will lead to opportunity for Lazard. The hesitation here comes in putting two Packers wideouts in the “high floor” column against Philadelphia’s defense but both Watson and Lazard are more likely to have the high floor than be a feast or famine option. Lazard’s production all season long shines a light on that.
Philly is 9-1 and has held the opposition to 17 or fewer points in seven of 10 games. On top of that, the Eagles lead the NFL in takeaways at 2.1 per game. Green Bay has been more than willing to cough it up, ranking 27th in turnover margin. If that’s not enough to convince you, the Eagles were already pretty good up front on the defensive line then they went out and signed two more options in Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. The Eagles aren’t messing around this year and neither is their defense.
It truly has been a feast or famine season for Smith. The former Heisman Trophy winner has games this year of zero catches, three receptions for 17 yards, five receptions for 23 yards and two receptions for 22 yards. He also has games where he’s gone for eight receptions, 169 yards and a touchdown, 10 catches for 87 yards and six receptions for 78 yards. This one is quite simple: if you think Smith will be able to take the lid off a Packers secondary that has had its weak moments, Smith is worth plugging in. If you have better, more consistent options, that’s likely the move.
The Titans game was supposed to be a game to expose a bad secondary and instead Rodgers missed some timely passes in uncharacteristic fashion and was never able to get things humming. Why then, would he be able to right those wrongs against a better defense on the road? The answer is it’s unlikely to happen. Even though we have Watson and Lazard in the high floor category, Rodgers isn’t a safe play in fantasy formats given his up-and-down play and the thumb injury that keeps getting brought up. There are far better options to slot in at quarterback in all leagues and daily contests.
It’s the same story every week with Tonyan. Just one touchdown in 11 games and he continues to be on the backburner in the game plan for Green Bay. Tonyan has fewer than 36 yards receiving in all but one game this year and just isn’t worth a fantasy spot. The risk far outweighs the reward and it’s not even particularly close.
No touchdowns this year and not a single game with more than one reception makes this one pretty straight forward. Sit Stoll and if you have him chewing up a roster spot, it’s safe to drop him.
If it’s not one thing it’s another. Against the Titans, Green Bay did alright in limiting Henry in the rushing attack but they made Tannehill look like Joe Montana. This defense, which again has all the talent it needs, just isn’t putting out a consistent product and it’s too optimistic of a mindset to expect them to have a breakthrough performance against Philadelphia.