As always, the market for free agents is difficult to read. But to this point, the Rangers seem more confident of landing left-hander Carlos Rodón and possibly Japanese righty Kodai Senga than they do of signing the best available starting pitcher, Jacob deGrom, or most accomplished, Justin Verlander.
The Mets have shown interest in Senga and Verlander, but deGrom appears to be their focus. It’s tempting to ask, “If not the Mets for deGrom, then who?” The Braves, for example, are only about $5 million shy of the initial $233 million luxury-tax threshold. Maybe they would approach the second, $253 million level to re-sign free-agent shortstop Dansby Swanson. But would they flirt with the third, $273 million threshold for deGrom?
Such questions are reasonable. Barring a surprise, maybe no team beats out the Mets for deGrom. But just as it’s unwise to assume the Giants and Yankees are the only teams competing for free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge, it’s almost certainly a mistake to assume the Mets are bidding against themselves.
Judge and deGrom are potential game-changers for whichever team signs them. The Dodgers, in particular, relish the type of short-term, high-dollar deal deGrom is likely to command. And while mystery teams are always difficult to identify — that’s why they’re a mystery! — they almost always exist.
• José Abreu remains a target of the Astros, Padres and other clubs, but one executive with a pulse on the market senses that the free-agent first baseman is intrigued by the possibility of playing for one of the two Florida teams.
Abreu, a native of Cuba who turns 36 on Jan. 29, owns a home south of Miami. The question is whether the Marlins or Rays, two of the game’s most reluctant spenders, would be willing to meet his price. Abreu also might prefer to join a team that is perceived to be a stronger World Series contender.
The Astros just won the Series. The Padres made it to the NLCS. But the Rays, one of six teams to make the postseason each of the last four years, are no slouch.
• Agent Scott Boras put on a show at the last winter meetings in 2019, securing nearly $800 million combined for Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon. An encore at this year’s meetings, starting next week, hardly is out of the question. Boras has so many free-agent clients, he probably will want to start taking some off the board.
Three of Jim Bowden’s top seven free agents (No. 4 Carlos Correa, No. 6 Xander Bogaerts and No. 7 Carlos Rodón) are represented by Boras. So are three others in Bowden’s top 25 (No. 16 Brandon Nimmo, No. 21 Michael Conforto and No. 25 Josh Bell). Add to that group Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo, among others.
Carlos Correa (Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
• From the FWIW (For What It’s Worth) Dept: The Dodgers routinely draft and sign international free agents who are Boras clients, but they have not added one of his veteran free agents on a multi-year contract since Dec. 2012. The recipient, in the first year of the Guggenheim ownership, was lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu on a six-year, $36 million deal.
So, while Boras clients such as Bellinger, Corey Seager and Julio Urías have excelled for the Dodgers in recent seasons, Andrew Friedman has mostly stayed away from Boras players on the open market since becoming the team’s president of baseball operations in Oct. 2014. Mostly, but not completely. The Dodgers bid heavily for Cole in 2019, only to lose out to the Yankees. The team also extended a one-year qualifying offer to Ryu in 2018, which the pitcher accepted.
Will another exception emerge from the current crop of free agents? Correa, Rodón and Nimmo are among the Boras clients whom the Dodgers could pursue.
• Catcher is such a weak offensive position in the majors, it seems almost inevitable the Athletics will get a strong return for Sean Murphy and the Blue Jays will fare well if they trade one of their three catchers, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen or Gabriel Moreno.
Each of those players is under club control for a different number of years — Moreno six, Kirk four, Murphy three and Jansen two. The Guardians, as they await the arrival of Bo Naylor, wanted Murphy at the trade deadline. The Padres, under former A’s manager Bob Melvin, likely have current interest in him as well. But Padres officials remain high on Luis Campusano, and after depleting their farm system with the Juan Soto blockbuster, probably would not want to include their top prospect, shortstop Jackson Merrill, in a trade.
The Cardinals, who need to replace Yadier Molina, are another club with an obvious need. Ditto for the Red Sox, whose only experienced catcher is Reese McGuire, and the Rays, who are down to Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia. But even clubs that appear relatively set — the Yankees, for example — could be in the mix for Murphy. The league-wide .663 OPS at catcher last season was the lowest since 1989 (.635).
• Carlos Estévez is not exactly a household name, but he is attracting a good amount of interest on the open market. Some teams view the right-handed reliever as a potential high-leverage piece for an Astros-like bullpen. Others view him as a potential closer.
Estévez, who turns 30 on Dec. 28, has spent his entire career with the Rockies. He did not pitch at all in the majors in 2018 after missing the first half of the season with a strained left oblique, and was not good in the final month of the shortened 2020 campaign.
But in the last three full seasons — 2019, 2021 and 2022 — Estévez produced a combined 3.40 ERA in 190 2/3 innings while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. One concern: His walk rate, which was always relatively high, spiked even higher last season.
• In July, Matt Strahm talked about following the path of Michael Lorenzen and transitioning from being a reliever to a starter. But the free market for left-handed relievers is so thin, Strahm is likely to sign as a reliever, capitalizing on the demand. Andrew Chafin opted out of a $6.5 million salary with the Tigers for the same reason, and is now one of the best lefties available.
Among the others, Matt Moore had a 1.95 ERA in 74 innings for the Rangers, but teams might view his performance as an outlier. Taylor Rogers struggled to a career-high 4.76 ERA with the Padres and Brewers. Brad Hand, pitching for the Phillies, failed to retire any of the three Padres hitters he faced in Game 2 of the NLCS and allowed a two-run homer by Soto in Game 4.
Will Smith pitched well for the Astros after arriving in a trade from the Braves, but did not crack the team’s Division Series and ALCS rosters. The Astros added him for the World Series, but did not use him once to counter Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper — though admittedly, their bullpen from the right side was quite strong.
• Right-handed reliever Craig Stammen was out from July 10 until Sept. 11 with right shoulder inflammation. The Padres did not include him on any of their three postseason rosters. And by the time next season begins, he will be 38.
No matter. The Padres are likely to re-sign Stammen, who is a clubhouse leader and one of Melvin’s most trusted veterans.
• In Kevin Kiermaier’s perfect world, he would land a deal similar to the two-year, $24 million free-agent contract another defense-first center fielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., landed prior to the 2021 season.
Bradley, though, was entering his Age 31 season, and coming off an .814 OPS in the shortened 2020 campaign. Kiermaier is entering his Age 33 season, and played only 63 games before undergoing season-ending hip surgery in August. Because of injuries, he has averaged only 101 games over his last six full seasons.
• The Orioles are dabbling in the market for free-agent starting pitchers, and also cannot be ruled out on a trade for any starter who might be available, from the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes and Marlins’ Pablo López to the Guardians’ Zach Plesac and Tigers’ Tarik Skubal.
Baseball America put the Orioles at the top of their midseason organizational talent rankings, and that was after the graduation of catcher Adley Rutschman. The system features a number of young hitters, including outfielder Colton Cowser, infielder Jordan Westburg and third baseman Coby Mayo, who could appeal to prospective trade partners.
(Top photo of Jacob deGrom: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)