Mike McDaniel wishes it were colder. That might not be in the best interest of his team.
The Dolphins are set to face the Bills on Saturday night in a game that could feature several feet of snow and be played in temperatures in the low 30s and 20s Fahrenheit in Western New York.
Miami has tried to prepare for the game as best it can. It turned up the air conditioning in the practice facility, with NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe describing the temperature as feeling like it was in the 50s or 60s.
Dolphins practicing in their indoor facility today with AC blasting as cold as it would go. Felt like it was in the 50s or low 60s.
Definitely not Buffalo temperatures but better prep than the 80 degrees it currently is outside in Miami Gardens.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 14, 2022
It is a major change from the first game between these two teams in 2022. It was 90 degrees in Miami, per Pro Football Reference, when the Dolphins won 21-19 in Week 3.
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How will the Dolphins fare in the frigid temperatures and snow of Orchard Park? Here’s a look at what history has to say about their chances.
Dolphins’ record in cold-weather games
Miami has not played well when it has had to play in cold weather.
The Dolphins have lost eight straight games when the temperature is at or below 40 degrees, according to Stathead. The last win came at Buffalo, when a Dolphins team that finished 10-6 and made the playoffs won in overtime against a 7-9 Bills team in 38-degree weather.
And this isn’t anything new for the Dolphins. Per Stathead’s data, Miami has an all-time record of 25-46-1 in outdoor games when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder. All but one of those games, a Dec. 24, 1989, matchup against the Chiefs, have been on the road.
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played in two of those games: on Jan. 3, 2021, against the Bills, and this season against the 49ers in Week 12.
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In that first game against Buffalo, he completed 35 of 58 passes for 361 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Against San Francisco, he completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has a 68.75 passer rating for the two games.
Bills’ record in cold-weather games
The Bills, on the other hand, have thrived in cold-weather games, particularly in recent years. All time, Buffalo is 114-106-2 in games where the temperature is 40 degrees or colder, per Stathead.
Josh Allen is 15-7 in such games since becoming the team’s quarterback. In those games, he has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 5,027 yards, 42 touchdowns and 16 interceptions for a 90.7 passer rating. He also has rushed 170 times for 1,101 yards and nine touchdowns.
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Cold-weather game stats
While the Dolphins haven’t historically been great in cold-weather games, they can take solace in knowing that there isn’t a major difference between home and away in cold-weather games this season. Home teams are 11-11-1 in the 23 games where the temperature was 40 degrees or below. Home teams have averaged 343.2 yards per game, while away teams have averaged 362.8 yards per game.
The Dolphins maintain that the weather will not affect how they perform Saturday.
“To me, you just decide if you’re going to let it factor in or not and then you adjust as best you can. There’s certain things that become harder when there’s moisture or it hits a certain level of frigidness, but the good news is there’s not different atmospheres on both sidelines,” McDaniel said Wednesday. “It is the same field, the same elements, so you just decide mentally how much you’re going to let it affect you.”