The NBA playoffs have another full slate on Sunday with four more games for bettors: Bucks (-4) at Bulls, Warriors (-4.5) at Nuggets, Heat (-2) at Hawks, and Suns (-2.5) at Pelicans. The Warriors have a chance to be the first team in the second round, while the Bucks, Heat, and Suns can take commanding 3-1 leads in their respective series. Before you place any bets on Sunday’s action, let’s take a look at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 17-8 (68 percent) on all picks in the past seven days, including 11-5 on O/U picks, for a total return of $746 on $100 bets.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Saturday
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Bucks (-4) at Bulls, O/U 218.5
Trends: Under coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 45-19 ATS vs. division opponents, 17-5 ATS on the road vs. teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game, and 19-8 as a road favorite this season.
Top Player Prop: Nikola Vucevic OVER 10.5 rebounds (-125). BetQL is projecting the Bulls center to finish with 14 boards. He finished the regular season averaging 11 rebounds per game and pulled down 17 and 13 in the two close games in this series. However, he had just six on Friday in Chicago’s blowout loss. If you think this will be another blowout, then take the UNDER, but BetQL expects another relatively close content, making the OVER a strong play.
Warriors (-4.5) at Nuggets, O/U 224
Trends: Under coach Michael Malone, the Nuggets have gone 31-12 ATS after failing to cover six or seven of their past eight games. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 25-15 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Top Player Prop: Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 made three-pointers (+180). With Denver’s backs against the wall, Jokic is projected to make two three-pointers in this game, per BetQL. He went 2-of-3 from deep in Game 3 and also attempted four three-pointers in both Games 1 and 2.
BetQL Staff Pick: Warriors -4.5. The Warriors have covered the spread in their past four games, and I don’t see them slowing down now. They’re 25-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. They’ve also covered the spread in their past two games on the road and in three of their past four on the road, so I’m all in on them to cover against the Nuggets in this Game 4. —Lucy Burdge
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Heat (-2) at Hawks, O/U 221
Trends: In their 41 outright losses this season, the Hawks have gone 0-41 ATS. Atlanta has also gone 12-2 ATS at home against teams with winning records in the second half. The Heat have gone 17-4 ATS against teams that shoot 36 percent or better from three-point range this season.
Top Player Prop Bet: Jimmy Butler UNDER 6.5 assists (+100). Butler had eight assists in Game 3, but he had just four in Game 1 and five in Game 2. BetQL is projecting him to record five in Game 4.
Suns (-2.5) at Pelicans, O/U 215.5
Trends: The Suns have gone an NBA-best 33-9 SU on the road this season. Over the past two years, the Pelicans are 8-2 SU (+8.1 units) avenging a home loss.
Top Player Prop Bet: Jonas Valanciunas OVER 0.5 made three-pointers (+185). BetQL projects the Pelicans’ center to make one three-pointer, which makes this +185 prop valuable.
BetQL Staff Pick: Total UNDER 215.5. Devin Booker (right hamstring) is expected to be out again for Game 4, so it’s worth repeating that in seven games from Dec. 2-16 without Booker in the lineup, the Suns went 5-2 straight-up (albeit against only two true playoff teams in that span), but they were just 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U. And when Booker missed another game April 3, the Suns lost by 21 at OKC, another UNDER.
And it’s about more than just the absence of Booker. New Orleans was 34-50 O/U during the regular season, including 24-37 as the underdog. Plus, the UNDER has hit in 12 of the Pelicans’ past 17 games. Meanwhile, the Suns were just 41-41 O/U during the regular season and had hit six straight UNDERs going into Game 2 of this series. Without Booker, the UNDER is looking strong again for Game 4.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!