The Eastern Conference side of the NBA Playoff bracket has been a real treat this season, and that should continue with the Celtics taking on the Heat in what should be a competitive Eastern Conference Finals.
For the Heat, this is the same story that’s been written about them all season. They were the best team by record in the Eastern Conference despite battling injuries all year, yet they didn’t get much buzz heading into the postseason.
They’ve followed up that impressive regular season by compiling the best record and net rating among NBA Playoff teams, battling injuries to Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry and receiving even less attention than they did during the regular season.
The Heat may be getting slept on because of how wildly entertaining the other side of the bracket was. Steel sharpens steel, and the Celtics were forging themselves into a razor-sharp blade. That Bucks-Celtics series may have been the real NBA Finals.
MORE: The best highlights from Game 7 of Bucks vs. Celtics
The key matchup
Jimmy Butler is the engine that makes the Heat go. It can’t be overstated how much the team relies on him on both ends of the floor. His on/off splits paint a good picture of his value.
The Heat are beating up on teams at a better rate than any team in recent history with Butler on the floor and playing like the Wizards when he sits.
| Possessions |
Offensive Rating |
Defensive Rating |
Net Rating |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler ON | 723 | 120.1 | 103.9 | +16.2 |
| Butler OFF | 298 | 104.4 | 108.1 | -3.7 |
Butler has yet to face a group of perimeter defenders on the level of the Celtics. They had the best defense in the league by far during the second half of the season, and they have the personnel 1 through 5 to switch onto Butler and give him problems.
The X-factor
Heat
Tyler Herro was the Heat’s best offensive player during the regular season. In the NBA Playoffs, he’s been inconsistent.
Herro has been targeted on defense, and he hasn’t handled more aggressive defenses that are loading up on him. His shot also just hasn’t been falling (27.3 percent from 3-point range in the postseason), and that’s probably due to luck more than anything else.
Can Herro get back to his regular season form? He will need to, because the Heat are going to struggle to score against the Celtics. They’ve been by far the worst offense of any of the teams still remaining.
Celtics
Derrick White hasn’t provided huge scoring outbursts, but he’s done all the other things well. He’s a great team defender, smart cutter and good ball mover. In the games that the Celtics have won, he’s made a ton of key plays.
Can White provide enough on offense to play big minutes in this series? His jump shot has been shaky since being acquired by the Celtics. If he can find a way to get those shots to go down, then it will give them a massive boost.
Celtics vs. Heat series schedule
Here is the full schedule for the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| May 17 | Game 1 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| May 19 | Game 2 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| May 21 | Game 3 | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| May 23 | Game 4 | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| May 25 | Game 5* | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| May 27 | Game 6* | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| May 29 | Game 7* | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
*If necessary
Celtics vs. Heat series odds
This section will be updated when odds are released.
Celtics vs. Heat picks, prediction
The Heat’s heavy dependence on Butler is going to be their ultimate undoing. He’s been unbelievable in the NBA Playoffs, but the Celtics are a team designed to shut him down. They will force the other players on the Heat to beat them.
That strategy may not have worked when Herro and Kyle Lowry were backing Butler up. But Herro hasn’t been the same player, and Lowry actively hurt the team when he played in the second round because of the hamstring injury that he’s been fighting through. The Heat don’t have the firepower to beat that strategy.
The Heat are going to fight like hell, but I’m picking the Celtics in six.