Western Conference Preview: Mavericks at Warriors
Who does Inside the NBA think comes away with the Western Conference crown?
The Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks are set to meet in the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference finals, beginning in San Francisco on Wednesday (9 ET, TNT) with both teams arriving here after traveling bumpy roads.
The Warriors finished with the conference’s No. 3 seed despite Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green sharing only a combined 11 regular-season minutes amid overlapping injuries. They dispatched the Denver Nuggets in five games in the first-round only to meet a young and physical second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies team that challenged them to six games.
The Mavericks finished with the fourth seed and held onto relative optimism that Luka Doncic’s brilliance, Jason Kidd’s arrival and a mid-season trade would finally help them advance past the first-round. They did, knocking off the Utah Jazz in six games and then upsetting the top-seeded Phoenix Suns in seven — a team that had set a franchise record with this regular season’s league-high 64 wins.
3 Things to Watch
1. The Warriors expect a fuller roster. Warriors coach Steve Kerr cleared the NBA’s Health & Safety Protocols after missing Games 4, 5 and 6 against Memphis. Warriors veteran forward Andre Iguodala could return as early as Friday in Game 2 after missing the Warriors’ past seven playoff games, including the entire series against Memphis, with a neck injury. And the Warriors expect forward Otto Porter Jr. to appear in Game 1 after missing the past two games with a sore right foot.
Clearly, the Warriors’ success mostly rests on Curry, Thompson and Green. But the other additions could have a huge trickle-down effect. Pending Kings head coach Mike Brown offered experience, strong preparation and defensive expertise, but Kerr provides unique offensive creativity and presence as the guide to their previous three-championship run. Not only did the Warriors miss Iguodala’s playoff experience and Porter’s versatility, they also became more vulnerable with fewer wing options. The Warriors may not have to worry about such issues against Dallas.
2. How will Luka Doncic top himself? It seems inevitable the Warriors will soon feel the pain that the LA Clippers, Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns all experienced. No team has a solution for Doncic, particularly in the playoffs.
The Clippers survived a first-round nightmare against Doncic in 2020 (31 ppg; 50.0 FG%) and in 2021 (35.7 ppg; 49.0 FG%) only because they had Kawhi Leonard while Doncic had little help. This year, Doncic dominated against the Jazz (29.0 ppg; 46.9%) and the Suns (32.2 ppg; 45.7 FG%) while also leaning on his supporting cast.
Chuck: Luka has ‘no fear’ and his confidence is contagious
After facing other thankless tasks against Denver center Nikola Jokic and Memphis guard Ja Morant, the Warriors have experience on handling a seemingly impossible defensive assignment. Expect the Warriors to throw multiple bodies at Doncic both big (Green, Porter, Kevon Looney) and small (Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins). Expect the Warriors to make Doncic work on defense against any of the Splash Brothers. Expect the Warriors to tolerate a Doncic outburst so long as no other Mavericks player experiences the same scoring high. That puts the onus on any combination of Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie to relieve Doncic as they have done occasionally during this postseason run.
3. How much help will Curry, Thompson and Green need? Will this year’s Warriors have the same “Strength in Numbers” identity as their other past teams?
The Warriors saw third-year guard Jordan Poole blossom in three playoff starts against Denver and serve as a key reserve against Memphis, only to flame out in the final games in each series. The Warriors played rookie Jonathan Kuminga double-digit minutes in three games against Memphis before limiting his playing time the rest of the series, despite Iguodala and Porter becoming hobbled by injuries.
All of those players will have opportunities to develop into the X-factor against Dallas. Because of the uncertainty of those moving parts, though, the Warriors may need their stars to produce more efficiently than they did against Memphis. Curry, Thompson and Green all showed their greatness, particularly in a decisive Game 6. But they also labored through off-shooting nights and sloppy turnovers.
Number to know
22.4 — This series will be a contrast in styles. One team plays quickly and moves the ball. The other plays slow and generally keeps the ball in the hands of one guy.
The Mavs lead the playoffs in time of possession, averaging 22.4 minutes of possession through their first 12 games. For the third straight year, Luka Doncic leads the postseason in individual time of possession (10.0 minutes per game).
The Warriors, meanwhile, rank 14th at just 20.2 minutes of possession, with nobody in the top 10 among individuals. They rank first in player movement (11.3 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession) and second in ball movement (340 passes per 24 minutes of possession), while the Mavs rank 15th (9.9) and 16th (273).
Dallas suppressed the Warriors’ ball movement as the Mavs won three of the four regular-season meetings. Golden State led the regular season at 369 passes per 24 minutes of possession, but their 345 per 24 against the Mavs was their lowest rate against any Western Conference opponent. Stephen Curry played in all four games, but Draymond Green played in just one of the four.
–John Schuhmann
The pick
Doncic has improved by maximizing his individual dominance and elevating his teammates. Even if the Mavs have developed much better chemistry than Doncic could ever foster with Kristaps Porzingis, however, the Warriors’ depth should prove too much to overcome. Warriors in 6.
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Mark Medina is a senior writer/analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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