Fantasy Football 2022: New NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators

Eberflus cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator with the Colts, so it’s tough to evaluate exactly what his offensive tendencies might be. The responsibilities there may fall more to Eberflus’ offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy.

Still, it’s worth noting that the Colts utilized a run-heavy attack in 2021, logging the fifth-highest running percentage in the NFL at 47.43, and have ranked top 10 in run percentage in each of the past three seasons. That could signal a run-heavy game plan for the Bears which would provide David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert a boost. It would also potentially give Justin Fields more opportunities to run the ball.

But, again, Eberflus’ coordinator hire may be a better signal of how the Bears want to build their offense. 

2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:

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Speaking of Eberflus’ coordinator, Getsy is going to be tasked with helping Justin Fields to develop after leading Aaron Rodgers to back-to-back MVP campaigns. He will also need to turn what was one of the league’s weakest offenses under Matt Nagy in 2021 into a functioning unit.

How will Getsy do that? The Packers have run a balanced offense in each of the past three seasons — ranking 16th, 22nd and 17th in pass percentage — so he may look to run a similar style in Chicago.

That said, Getsy’s background with the Packers included working with the quarterback and serving as the team’s passing game coordinator in each of the past two seasons. Rodgers had the fourth-quickest release time (2.63 seconds) under Getsy’s watch while averaging 4.1 air yards per attempt. Getsy could replicate that type of quick passing attack with Fields to take some pressure off the second-year quarterback.

Either way, it looks like Fields will be passing more in 2022 than he did in ’21 when he averaged just 25.5 passing attempts per start. That’s why he’s one of our QB sleepers to watch.

2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):

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The Bills lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants, who hired him as their next head coach. To replace him, Buffalo made an internal hire, promoting quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey to the offensive coordinator spot.

Dorsey has been with the Bills since 2019 and was the team’s passing game coordinator in ’21. It seems unlikely that he would make wholesale changes to an offense that averaged the third most points in the NFL last season (29.8) and fifth-most yards (389.3).

The Bills will likely continue to rely on Josh Allen for a bulk of their offense, be it passing the ball or running it. He accounted for 77.6 percent of their total offense in 2021, so Dorsey will continue to lean on him.

2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:

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Hackett spent the last three seasons as the Packers’ offensive coordinator, so it seems likely that he will carry his balanced offense over from Green Bay. As mentioned, the Packers ranked 16th, 22nd and 17th in passing play percentage the past three seasons, so Hackett doesn’t seem to favor the run or pass above average.

However, it’s worth noting that in Hackett’s stints with the Bills and Jaguars, his offenses twice ranked top three in run percentage. That was with the 2013 Bills, who went 6-10, and the ’17 Jaguars, who went 10-6 and nearly went to the Super Bowl.

As such, it appears that Hackett’s long-term tendencies may favor the run, which would be good news for both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon’s fantasy outlooks. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson’s stock would likely remain neutral. Why? Because the Broncos will still probably pass just as much if not more than the Seahawks, who routinely have ranked average to below-average in run percentage in recent years.

Of course, with Hackett serving as the Broncos’ head coach, Outten will get a chance to help call the plays and coordinator the team’s offensive attack.

Outten, 38, has served under Hackett with the Packers in each of the past three seasons. So, like Hackett and Getsy, he figures to favor a balanced offensive attack, though Hackett may have him run the ball a bit more.

Outten may like to run at an above-average rate, too. He spent three years as an assistant with the Falcons before joining the Packers. During his time in Atlanta, the Falcons twice ranked 22nd in passing-play percentage and strung together 11- and 10-win seasons in those campaigns. In his final season, they ranked third in passing-play percentage and went 7-9.

Outten is a former college offensive lineman, so he knows the value of a strong running game. So, once again, this is a boost for Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

Bowles coached under Bruce Arians for three years with the Bucs (2019-21) and two years with the Cardinals (’13-14), so it seems unlikely that he will shake things up drastically in Tampa Bay.

After all, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is staying put for his fourth season in Tampa Bay, and Tom Brady is returning to action for his age-45 season. As such, the Bucs, who were the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL last season (66.46 percent) and have ranked top 10 in passing-play percentage in each of Leftwich’s three years as coordinator, will likely continue to lean heavily on the passing game to carry their squad.

Some may expect a slight regression from Brady and Tampa Bay’s receivers because the Jets routinely ranked below average in pass-play percentage under Bowles’ watch. However, that seems more like a function of the Jets’ mediocre quarterback play, highlighted by Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Besides, Bowles is a defensive guy. He will let his offensive coordinator call the shots on that side of the ball, so Leftwich and Brady will continue to pass as much as they want in 2022.

McDaniel served as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator for just one season in 2021. Under his watch, San Francisco passed the ball just 51.6 percent of the time, good for the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.

It’s hardly a surprise that McDaniel prefers running the ball. He spent four years as the 49ers’ run game coordinator from 2017-20 and was working with a strong offensive line in San Francisco. The Dolphins spent a lot of resources in free agency to upgrade their offensive line, so it would seem that McDaniel is looking to bring that run-heavy approach to Miami.

This could be a drastic change for the Dolphins, who ranked 10th in passing-play percentage in ’21 (59.7 percent). That will provide a fantasy stock up for Miami’s running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, and Myles Gaskin. However, the Dolphins may take a back-by-committee approach again that would limit the upside of each candidate in 2022.

It would seem that Smith’s primary goal will be to help McDaniel implement his offense in Miami. He served as the Chargers’ run game coordinator in 2021 and helped Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson serve as solid threats both between the tackles and receivers out of the backfield.

The Chargers ranked fifth in pass-play percentage last season, but Smith’s influence came more on the ground given his background as an offensive line and tight ends coach. Given McDaniel’s history, it seems like these two would prefer a ground-dominant offense that can take some pressure off Tua Tagovailoa.

As such, this is another stock up for Miami’s running backs. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa gets a stock down while big-play threats Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle remain stock neutral. They will still produce big numbers but just might not catch as many passes as some might hope.

Daboll is a coach that knows how to adjust to his personnel, which is extremely valuable in the NFL.

During his four-year stint with the Bills, Daboll’s play-calling changed as Josh Allen progressed. In Allen’s first two years as the starter, Buffalo ranked 29th and 26th, respectively, in pass-play percentage. As Allen improved the next two years, Daboll and Co. opted to pass the ball more, ranking 11th and 15th, respectively, in pass-play percentage in ’20 and 2021.

Daboll’s willingness to serve as a chameleon of sorts will prove beneficial to the Giants. He can evaluate their talent and see whether a run- or pass-heavy approach works best for the team.

Given the presence of a healthy Saquon Barkley, an improved offensive line, and the struggles of Daniel Jones, one would think that Daboll would lean toward the run-heavy approach in 2022, but his offensive coordinator hire may dictate otherwise.

Pederson is another member of the Andy Reid coaching tree, and like Kafka, he seems to prefer the passing game.

Pederson’s Eagles ranked top 10 in total pass attempts in four of Pederson’s five seasons with the team. They ranked 13th the only time they didn’t crack the top 10.

While Pederson is a bit more balanced as a play-caller — the Eagles ranked top 10 in rushing attempts three times under him as well — it seems like the Jaguars may lean a bit more on the pass than the run. That could make Trevor Lawrence a solid QB2 sleeper while Christian Kirk may also be more valuable than some realize.

Taylor is the brother of Bengals coach Zac Taylor, and the younger Taylor has a lot of experience with Pederson.

Taylor was a quality control and quarterbacks coach for the Eagles during Pederson’s five seasons with the team before joining former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich with the Eagles in 2021. Now, he will reunite with Pederson and will likely institute an offense similar to the one that his mentors ran in Philadelphia.

Taylor has never called plays, so it’s safe to assume that he will probably follow Pederson’s lead a bit this year. So, again, stock up for the Jacksonville passing game.

Another year, another new Lions offensive coordinator. Dan Campbell originally hired Anthony Lynn to serve as his offensive leader in 2021, but the pairing didn’t work. So, the Lions pivoted to Johnson, who had been with the organization since ’19 and helped coordinate the team’s passing game last season.

The Lions had the 12th-ranked passing play percentage in ’21. They will likely continue to pass the ball at an above-average rate with Johnson as their new offensive coordinator.

Detroit could even crack the top 10 without Lynn, as the former Chargers head coach tended to lean on the running game during his time in the NFL. So, don’t be afraid to take Jared Goff late in best-ball leagues and target guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, Jameson Williams, and DJ Chark in fantasy drafts, too.

Stenavich is one of the numerous Packers assistants on this list. He has been elevated to offensive coordinator after the departure of Hackett, Getsy, and Outten, and he will serve as a sounding board for Matt LaFleur in 2022.

LaFleur has served as the Packers’ primary play-caller since being hired as the team’s head coach in ’19. As such, it’s unlikely that Stenavich will change much about Green Bay’s approach unless LaFleur opts to give up the play calling in ’22.

The Packers ranked 17th in pass-play percentage in ’21, 22nd in ’20 and 16th in ’19. They are a balanced offense but could be a bit more run heavy in ’22 after the departure of Davante Adams. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are both potential every-week starters this year. 

McAdoo is an interesting fit in Carolina given that he once admitted he wasn’t a big fan of Baker Mayfield. But if McAdoo wants to run his offense, he will likely need to rely on Mayfield.

During his time as the Giants’ offensive coordinator and head coach, McAdoo relied heavily on the passing game to carry New York’s offense. They ranked top 10 in passing attempts each season — including a No. 1 rank in 2017 — and ranked top 12 in pass-play percentage in each of his past three seasons there.

The Panthers ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in pass-play percentage in each of Matt Rhule’s first two years with the team. They will probably climb a bit higher in the 2022 rankings, so that should be good news for D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at the very least. It’s also why we tabbed Mayfield as a QB sleeper heading into this year.

The Patriots haven’t officially named an offensive coordinator for 2022, and they probably won’t do so at all. Bill Belichick likes to play things close to the vest, and it might actually be beneficial for Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to avoid taking on the title in 2022.

That said, it seems like Patricia is favored to serve as the de facto coordinator and play caller. That’s a step down from offensive guru Josh McDaniels, but New England will likely try to keep a lot of the same protocols and splits in place with familiar staffers in tow.

What does this mean? In short, don’t expect Belichick to change much. Just expect new people to dial into the team’s playbook.

The Patriots will likely be a run-heavy offense again, as they ranked 26th in pass-play percentage last season. That makes Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson nice targets in the early-to-mid rounds of fantasy drafts.

Speaking of McDaniels, some might assume that his goal will be to turn the Raiders into a passing juggernaut. However, a deeper dive into his recent seasons with the Patriots show that he has skewed a bit run-heavy at times, at least compared to other teams across the NFL.

Since returning to the Patriots in 2012, McDaniels’ offenses have ranked top 10 in rushing attempts in seven of his 10 seasons with the team. They also ranked top 10 in passing attempts six times, but only twice did they have a passing-play percentage ranked above 16th best in the league.

Derek Carr and Davante Adams will still get plenty of chances to connect during the 2022 season and should be helped by McDaniels’ ability to create sustained offensive drives and opportunities. Still,  don’t be surprised if the Raiders try to jumpstart their running game to help them win. That would be a stock-up for Josh Jacobs, who might not catch as many passes but could run more. (The Pats always used a designated pass-catching back, so that could be good news for Kenyan Drake or Zamir White.) Darren Waller should continue to be used heavily in the red zone (see Hunter Henry last year), but he will likely see fewer overall targets.

Lombardi is joining McDaniels, as the two come over from the Patriots. Lombardi spent the past three seasons with New England as an assistant quarterbacks coach and a wide receivers coach.

McDaniels may ultimately call the plays for Las Vegas, but Lombardi could assist. If he does, he will probably be an extension of McDaniels’ plan to use the running game to open things up for the Raiders passing game.

Sean McVay has yet another new offensive coordinator after Kevin O’Connell made the jump to head coach. Coen wasn’t with the Rams in 2021, but the former UMass quarterback spent three seasons with Los Angeles from ’18-20 as a wide receiver and quarterbacks coach.

Coen spent ’21 with the University of Kentucky and helped them average 32.3 points per game, ranking 36th of 130 at the FBS level.

Coen is familiar with McVay’s offense and will likely continue to help the head coach implement that scheme. The Rams have ranked top 12 in pass attempts each of the past three seasons while ranking no better than 17th in rushing attempts, so they will lean on Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson to move the ball.

Smith is another defensive coordinator turned head coach, but his situation is stranger than that of Bowles and Allen. David Culley was fired after one season in charge of the Texans, and after a lengthy search for a successor, Smith emerged as a job candidate in the 11th hour and was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach.

Smith’s teams in Chicago tended to rely on their defense and running games to make them contenders. Thus, it’s no surprise that the Bears routinely ranked bottom 10 in the league in pass-play percentage.

The Texans are similarly undermanned and unproven on offense, so Smith could try to stage a run-heavy offense this year. However, it might all depend on what his new offensive coordinator wants to do.

Hamilton was another coach internally promoted by the Texans. After the great work he did with Davis Mills as a rookie, Hamilton was elevated from passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. It marks the first time since 2015 that he has held that title.

Hamilton most notably coached Andrew Luck at Stanford and during his first three years with the Colts. Indianapolis ranked 11th, sixth, and 10th, respectively, in pass-play percentage with Hamilton in charge of the offense.

The Texans ranked 19th in that category last year, so expect Hamilton to get a bit more aggressive this year. That said, Mills is no Luck, so Hamilton might not want to overdo it with the passing game early in the season, which could benefit whoever gets the bulk of the carries among Marlon Mack, Dameon Pierce, and Rex Burkhead

O’Connell spent the past two seasons with the Rams working under Sean McVay, so he will almost certainly bring an L.A. flare to Minnesota with him.

The Rams ran a fairly balanced offense under O’Connell in 2021, ranking 14th in pass-play percentage and 10th overall in pass attempts. The previous year, they ran much more frequently, ranking 26th in pass-play percentage. The Rams dealt with injuries at running back last year, so that, along with the addition of Matthew Stafford, might explain the increase in passing volume.

O’Connell will probably revert to more of the ’20 offense in Minnesota, as Dalvin Cook will give him a reason to run the ball frequently. That’s a stock-up for Cook, but Kirk Cousins still should see plenty of passing attempts. The Rams ranked 12th and 10th, respectively, in the NFL in total pass attempts in O’Connell’s two seasons there.

Phillips is best known for being the son of legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Now, he will get a chance to be an NFL offensive coordinator.

The younger Phillips has followed a similar path to that of O’Connell, coaching under McVay’s watch in Washington and then doing the same in Los Angeles. He was the Rams’ passing game coordinator in 2021 and will likely look to get the ball from Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson often during the ’22 NFL season.

Phillips’ tendencies aren’t yet known, but they are expected to mirror that of O’Connell and McVay. Again, that’s a boost for the Vikings’ run game, but they will still take plenty of chances with their passing game, as well.