Oilers’ D prospect Philip Kemp’s path to NHL is a long and grinding road

Phil Kemp takes place in the Edmonton Oilers development camp at the Community Rink in Rogers Place on June 24, 2019. Photo by Shaughn Butts /Postmedia, file

2022 Edmonton Oilers prospects
#19 Philip Kemp

Previously: #20 in 2021

Five years have come and gone since the Edmonton Oilers selected Philip Kemp right at the tail end of the 2017 NHL Draft.

As seventh round picks go, Kemp seemed to be too good to be true, at least on paper. The right shot defenceman was plus sized at 6’3, 203 pounds, with a reputation for hard-nosed play and leadership. Not only had he just spent two seasons on the increasingly-famous US Development Program’s national U-17 and U-18 teams, he had served as the team captain both years. He played in top level international tournaments for both age groups, and was an assistant captain on the powerhouse squad that had won the gold medal in that spring’s U-18 Worlds. Add “smart” to the list of attributes, given he had earned a scholarship at Yale University of the prestigious Ivy League for the foreseeable future.

And there he would remain, steadily developing his game for the next 3 years, with a side trip to the 2019 World Juniors where he won a silver medal. Earned it too, contributing a famous goal line save in the dying seconds of USA’s 2-1 win over Russia in the semifinal.

He was all set to play out his college career as captain of the Bulldogs in his senior year, but that dream crashed out with the cancellation of the entire 2020-21 Ivy League schedule due to COVID concerns. Rather than drown his sorrows, however, Kemp took the opportunity to turn pro, signing a 3-year Entry Level Contract with the Oilers.

That in itself is hardly a given for a seventh-round pick. Here’s how the Oilers have performed in the closing round over the past decade:

11 picks in this round over the past decade. So far just 4 of them have signed ELCs, with the first 2 of those, Greg Chase and Ben Betker, leaving the organization before those pacts had even run their course. A third, Vincent Desharnais, signed two 2-year minor league deals before finally earning an upgrade to an NHL-class contract this past spring. 3 other guys never received an offer from the club, while the 4 hopefuls below the bold blue line remain on the organization’s reserve list as possible, though hardly guaranteed, future signings. (It says here that #21 prospect Max Wanner is the likeliest bet to do so.)

Nobody on that list has played a single NHL game to date. Indeed, we have to go all the way back to the 2003 Draft (Kyle Brodziak, Mathieu Roy) to find an Oiler seventh-rounder who did. It’s always a long shot.

That said, solid NHLers like MacKenzie Weegar (306 NHL games), Ondrej Kase (257), Victor Olofsson (188) and more were uncovered in that seventh round in the drafts of 2013-15. There is value to be found there, at least some years there is.

Typically, though, such late selections come with some sort of fatal flaw that must somehow be overcome. In the case of Phil Kemp, it was surely the dreaded “skating an issue”. It certainly was when he attended his first summer development camp within days of being drafted; his straight-ahead speed wasn’t bad but he clearly had a lot of work to do on some of the finer points of pivots and crossovers.

The other missing link was offensive play, even as he’d spent plenty of time the prior couple of years deferring to his regular USNTDP partner Quinn Hughes and seemingly not compiling many points in the process. So let’s check out how his offensive game has progressed since:

The thick orange line represents his draft day, with everything above it what was on the record when the Oil selected Kemp.

Since then: 3 straight seasons of 3 goals each at Yale. Another 3-goal campaign with Vasby of Sweden’s second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan, where he cut his teeth as a pro. Most recently, yet another 3-goal output for Bakersfield of the AHL. And a consistent run of 5-8 assists in each of those seasons.

I’ve seen him play at various times. He showed up at 3 straight Dev Camps after being drafted, even though as a college player he was ineligible for fall rookie camps. There were several appearances with Teams USA of varying age groups. An entire playoff series while with Yale. There was that experience in Sweden playing with Raphael Lavoie at a time North American hockey was at a standstill and we at the Cult of Hockey were scouting Europe from afar. Finally, a few games last winter that I checked in on the Condors.

I found lots to like in the player when I zeroed in on him, but in the larger context of play he doesn’t tend to stand out. He does his job, keeps things simple, not a lot that is flashy. The defensive blueliner is hockey’s version of football’s offensive lineman, one tends to notice them more when they mess up than when they are simply doing their jobs.

While the player has made steady progress since his draft day, one thing that hasn’t much changed over Kemp’s time “in the system” is his position within the Cult of Hockey‘s summer rankings. After debuting at #32 in 2017 as a freshly minted seventh-round pick, he jumped to #19 the following year. And there he has remained: #18 in 2019, then #20 in 2020, then #20 again in 2021. Now back to #19.

Specific to the back end he seems perennially locked on the depth chart behind a group of more dynamic players with higher draft pedigree like Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov. Within the Condors he hasn’t seemed to establish any positive separation from fellow right-shot projects Mike Kesselring and Desharnais. Which suggests that for now at least, he’s found his level as a solid AHL d-man.

Expectations for 2022-23: Another full season on the blue line in Bakersfield honing his craft in the pros. Possibly a cup of NHL coffee for the 23-year-old if things break a certain way, but for now he’s a long way down the depth chart to expect a sudden breakthrough.