SEATTLE — Julio Rodríguez is going to be the face of the Mariners for a long, long time.
The club is finalizing a long-term deal with the star rookie that’s worth $210 million guaranteed and carries the possibility of maxing out as the longest and largest in MLB history at $470 million, according to a source. The club has not confirmed the deal, which could be worth eight, 13, 16 or 18 years, based on player and team options.
The value of the club option will break down as follows:
The base deal buys out Rodríguez’s pre-arbitration years, which probably would’ve only included 2022-23 based on the likelihood of him achieving Super Two status, and the arbitration years, which would be the four years after if he attained Super Two, as well as two free-agent years — all at a $15 million average annual value, before the club and player options come into play. The earliest that Rodríguez could’ve achieved free agency would’ve been after the 2027 season.
At first glance, it looks like a win-win for both sides: The Mariners lock up an emerging cornerstone at potentially below-market value in the longer term, and Rodríguez locks up a guaranteed $210 million, which would currently tie for the 24th-richest deal in baseball history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with the chance to earn even more.
It would easily be the largest guaranteed deal signed under Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, who’s been with the club since October 2015, blowing past the previous high of $115 million for Robbie Ray last offseason.
The uniqueness and creativity of the deal aligns with Dipoto’s front office, especially for a pre-arbitration player, and there is some unprecedented nature in the structure given the multiple escalators and the player and team options.
Rodríguez’s base deal from 2022-29 is comparable to what the Braves agreed to with Ronald Acuña Jr., who signed an eight-year, $100 million extension in 2019 after winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in ‘18. Acuña’s deal, which doesn’t include the financial security of Rodríguez’s $90 million club option, has since been viewed in the industry as quite team friendly.
Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year, $340 million extension with the Padres in 2021 when he was just 22 years old, but that deal is fully guaranteed and offers the club no flexibility should injuries or other factors impact his performance. Tatis, who was recently suspended 80 games for violating the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, had missed all of 2022 before the sanction while recovering from a wrist injury he suffered in an offseason motorcycle accident.
In the context of such similar deals, the Mariners have built-in financial security with this one. Should Rodríguez’s production not pan out as expected, and he does exercise the player option, the club would be on the hook for, at worst, an average of $16.15 million from 2022-34. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not an insurmountable salary that would weigh down the Mariners’ payroll in the long term. For years, Dipoto tried to get out from under the $24 million-per-year contract that Seattle’s previous regime gave Robinson Canó, whom Dipoto eventually traded in the 2018-19 offseason in the well-chronicled blockbuster that brought Seattle Jarred Kelenic and more.
And if Rodríguez performs at the level that both he and the club hope, he will — at least alongside contracts active as of today — become the richest player in baseball history, and the Mariners will reap the production of a superstar.
The timing is also relevant because of how far Rodríguez is from free agency. He would’ve earned the league-minimum $700,000 this year and next before reaching arbitration eligibility, where his salary would’ve been determined on a year-by-year basis, based on performance. Had the Mariners waited, each passing year would’ve also brought Rodríguez closer to the possibility of free agency. Juan Soto, who was dealt from the Nationals to the Padres at this year’s Trade Deadline, was moved mostly due to his decision to turn down a 14-year, $440 million offer from Washington. Soto will become a free agent after 2024 and could go to the highest bidder.
All of Friday’s news — the structure, the precedent and the timing — is fascinating, albeit perhaps not unexpected.
Rodríguez had arguably become the face of the franchise before he even made his debut on Opening Day in April, based on his skill set as one of the top power hitters in the Minors and billing as MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 overall prospect. But more so, Rodríguez resonated with Mariners fans for his charisma and flair, and the face of the future for a team that took a significant step back after the 2018 season. Rodríguez has long been a player that fans — and the franchise — have dreamed of since he signed as an international free agent in 2017 at age 16.
Now, he’s gone mainstream well beyond prospect circles and the Pacific Northwest, having taken the baseball world by storm on a worldwide level mere months into his big league career. And he’s only 21 years old.