“There’s, I guess, pros and cons for both [options],” Braves manager Brian Snitker said on Thursday. “I don’t know that there’s a right or wrong way. That’s one of the reasons why we’re still discussing it. Even this afternoon, we’re going to go over all those different scenarios.”
There might not be a right or wrong way, but there certainly could be a right or wrong result that might determine this best-of-five series. The Braves split the first two games in Atlanta. Now as they prepare to oppose Aaron Nola and a raucous Philadelphia crowd in Game 3, they must decide whether it’s best to use Strider as an opener or lean on Morton’s vast postseason experience.
Strider posted a 1.27 ERA while recording 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings against the Phillies this year. That’s incredible dominance, but he has thrown off a mound just twice since his left oblique muscle began bothering him near the end of a Sept. 18 start against Philadelphia. So the heralded rookie would likely only be available for two to three innings.
“We discuss a lot of different options and different scenarios,” Snitker said. “It’s complicated, but isn’t. Like I say, we just want to weigh everything — best-case, worst-case scenarios, things like that.”
Here’s a look at what the Braves are considering before making a decision:
Snitker said Strider has essentially thrown 1 1/2 bullpen sessions since being cleared to begin throwing off a mound again on Sunday. The 23-year-old hurler hasn’t simulated getting up and down between innings since feeling the oblique strain 25 days ago. There’s a chance he could get through the lineup once with a few efficient innings. But to be safe, the Braves would likely need to plan to get seven innings out of their bullpen.
Is it wise to tax the bullpen when potentially playing the first of three consecutive days? If Strider does get somewhere between six to nine outs, the Braves have Collin McHugh and Dylan Lee to bridge the gap to their high-leverage relievers: A.J. Minter, Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen. This could be the path to a key victory. But it also could make things very interesting if there is a Game 5, which would be played Sunday in Atlanta.
Playing three consecutive days would challenge both teams in the bullpen management department. There’s a chance the Braves might also need to tax their relief corps if Morton were to start and struggle on Friday. But what’s certain is that the Atlanta relievers will carry the load whenever Strider starts, which could be Game 3 or 4.
If the Braves recently committed $20 million more to Morton before this postseason, why is there even a question as to who will start Friday? Morton has a 2.94 ERA in his past 11 postseason starts, but he constructed a 4.34 ERA while allowing a career-high 28 home runs this year (10 more than his previous career high). This isn’t necessarily comforting, given that he’s going to be facing Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Co. in one of the game’s more homer-friendly ballparks.
Nor are the Braves comforted knowing Morton allowed a pair of home runs while giving up six runs over 4 2/3 innings at Citizens Bank Park on Sept. 25. Some shoddy defense hurt him during a July 27 loss in Philadelphia, but he did limit the Phillies to just two runs over 5 2/3 innings on June 28.
As for Strider, he registered 13 strikeouts while limiting Philadelphia to one run over 6 1/3 innings on Aug. 2. He recorded 10 strikeouts while again limiting the Phillies to one run over six innings on Sept. 18. He was slightly less dominant on July 26, when he tallied six strikeouts and allowed one run over six innings in Philadelphia.
Strider was available to come out of the bullpen to pitch, if necessary, on Wednesday night. Now the Braves must decide how best to utilize him during the remainder of this series.
“We’re going to use him,” Snitker said. “It’s just about how to best use this kid to our best advantage.”