Sitting at 12-16-5 with a -26 goal differential, the Arizona Coyotes are in 28th-place in the 32-team NHL. And as uninspiring as that sounds, you could still make an argument that Arizona has been better than expected through the first 33 games this season.
The betting favorites to finish with the worst record in the league before the season started, Arizona is on pace for 72 points in 2022-23, which is a ways ahead of the 65.5 points the bookmakers projected the Coyotes for the campaign.
Arizona is in a familiar spot on Thursday night, sitting as a +225 underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on ESPN+.
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Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes prediction
All the numbers in this contest are going to tell you the same thing: the Toronto Maple Leafs are several classes above the Arizona Coyotes. Toronto is 21 points and 56 goals ahead of the Desert Dogs in the standings, and the underlying metrics paint a similar picture.
But this isn’t a question about whether or not the Maple Leafs are better or the more likely team to win on Thursday. We already know they are. Instead, this is a question about whether or not Arizona is worth a bet at a big number.
Say what you want about the Coyotes, but they’ve been a really scrappy outfit this season. Arizona is 11-20 when it closes as an underdog in 2022-23 and even though that’s only good enough for a 35.5% win rate, the Coyotes would have returned $517 of profit to a $100 bettor on the moneyline. That’s good enough for a 16.7% ROI and is the fourth-best mark in the league this campaign (all information per the Action Network).
Additionally, the Coyotes seem to have taken pretty well to their unique home-ice advantage this season. Arizona is 6-5 at Mullett Arena this season and has pulled some major upsets against Florida (+245), Boston (+275) and Colorado (+182). If you bet $100 on the Coyotes in all of their home games this year, you’d be up $588, which is the second-best mark in the NHL behind the Bruins.
It’s only an 11-game sample, so it’s hard to draw any conclusions about whether or not playing at Mullett Arena does give Arizona an intangible edge. But if you think about it, there is some logic to it. The visiting teams won’t be used to the conditions, the sight lines or the atmosphere, while the Coyotes will be settled in at home.
Betting on the NHL?
Another reason the Coyotes have been such a plucky underdog is the play of goaltender Karel Vejmelka. According to MoneyPuck, only two goaltenders have posted a higher Goals Saved Above Expected than Vejmelka, who currently sports a +17 GSAx in 24 contests. If ‘The Melk Man’ is on his game, the Coyotes have a chance against any team in the NHL.
In all likelihood, Toronto will take money in this game, and bettors can wait out the market to get a bigger number on Arizona. So sit tight, and when then number gets out of hand, jump in on the pesky Coyotes.
Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes pick
Coyotes moneyline (PointsBet)