The Jaguars had a long search but ended up landing on Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson to be their next head coach. There are five years of Pederson leading an offense with the Eagles to look back on. At the very least, Pederson should provide stability after what the Jaguars went through last season. Plus, he has a history of helping develop QBs, getting the most out of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles, and even a small sample with Jalen Hurts while with the Eagles. It’s hard to knock Trevor Lawrence for struggling as a rookie given all he had to deal with, but his sophomore year should be better. With Philly, Pederson’s offenses finished inside the Top 12 in scoring in each of his first four seasons. The Eagles finished just one time outside the Top 10 in pass attempts, and that one time they finished 13th. So, it’s safe to expect a good amount of passing for the Jaguars in 2022. Three of the five seasons they finished 12th or better in passing touchdowns, including the 2017 Super Bowl season when they led the league. In his five seasons, the Eagles passed the ball on 60% of their plays with 17% of passes going to RBs, 48% to receivers and 32% to tight ends. Personnel will always impact play calling, but Pederson has always highlighted a tight end in his system. Whether it’s Dan Arnold or someone else, the Jags starting tight end is one to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes. Pederson’s offenses finished inside the Top 10 in rushing attempts three times as well in his five seasons — but it was not as fantasy friendly as it sounds. They never finished better than 13th in rushing touchdowns and we often saw multiple backs split time. Here are the highs for his running backs in the five seasons he was with the Eagles: 179 carries, 867 rushing yards and eight rushing TDs. Only one time did a running back top 200 fantasy points, and only three times in five years did one top 150 points. The Jaguars already have a solid RB duo in Travis Etienne and James Robinson, if both are healthy. Expect the duo to share a lot of work, making it harder for them to be consistently productive each week in fantasy. Former Lions OC Jim Bob Cooter was named passing game coordinator for Peterson and the Jags. His offenses with the Lions featured a lot of passes to running backs and slot receivers, but twice he finished inside the Top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns in four seasons. In all four years they finished inside the top 11 in passing attempts. It furthers the thinking that the Jags could throw a lot.
The Raiders made a splash by hiring former Patriots OC Josh McDaniels to be their next head coach. Sure, he benefitted from calling plays for the G.O.A.T. for years, but those concerns should be alleviated by how he was able to change the Patriots offense without Tom Brady and for helping Mac Jones perform the best of all rookie QBs in Year 1. McDaniels’ offenses ranked inside the Top 10 in passing attempts in all but two years since 2012 — each of the two without Brady. They ranked 31st with Cam Newton in 2020 and 25th last year with Mac Jones — but they finished 14th overall in passing yards showing he was still running an efficient passing attack. The Patriots finished inside the Top 10 in rushing attempts in four years straight and five of the last six. Those offenses have been inside the Top 10 in rushing TDs in every season since 2012 and inside the Top 12 in every year in rushing yards. We have seen McDaniels operate offenses built off the run, with passing attacks geared around a slot receiver and a big, athletic tight end. Ironically, the best weapons for the Raiders are their running back Josh Jacobs, slot receiver specialist Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Renfrow could be the Edelman to Waller’s Gronkowski in this offense. Plus, the Raiders have resources to find an outside receiver this offseason. There are reasons to feel optimistic about this offense next season.
The Saints hired longtime defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as their next head coach. Allen has a previous tenure as a head coach, leading the Raiders from 2012 through 2014. Those teams finished in the top five in passing attempts twice, but only once did they finish in the top half of the league in passing yards and touchdowns. They did not run the ball well, but that was largely because they were a team devoid of talent that would be trailing often. Much of the offense’s identity will be determined by the offensive coordinator, but this is a team with a lot of questions on offense. The most likely scenario here is to have fantasy interest in Alvin Kamara and potentially not a whole lot else.
The Texans surprised many when they went away from their list of finalists and hired Lovie Smith to be their next head coach. Smith served as the Bears head coach from 2004 to 2014, reaching the Super Bowl once, and then was the Bucs head coach in 2014 and 2015. During his entire tenure as a head coach, his teams finished inside the Top 10 in passing attempts just twice and routinely were outside the Top 20. Multiple times they would finish inside the Top 10 in rushing attempts. As a defensive minded coach his approach was often to ground and pound. But new OC Pep Hamilton will have a say in that as well. Hamilton was the QB coach with the Texans and deserves a lot of credit for helping Davis Mills develop as the year went on. He was with the Chargers in the same role in 2020. He has been an offensive coordinator once before with the Colts from 2013 to 2015. In two of those seasons the Colts finished in the Top 10 in passing attempts and in 2014 they led the league in passing attempts, yards, and TDs. This is a Texans team that is still void of a bunch of talent on the offensive side of the ball. I would expect an emphasis on running the ball given the personnel. Hamilton should continue to help this passing game develop.
The Vikings have not yet officially named a new coach, but that will happen after the Super Bowl when they announce Rams Offensive Coordinator Kevin O’Connell as their next head coach. O’Connell has been an OC in the NFL for the past three seasons. The last two he worked under Sean McVay, who we know has his fingerprints all over the Rams offense, but O’Connell deserves credit as well. He also was an OC with Washington in 2019. His offenses have finished inside the Top-12 in passing attempts the past two years and topped out this year finishing fifth in passing yards and second in touchdowns. He has also worked previously with Kirk Cousins as his QB coach in 2017. That season Cousins topped 4,000 passing yards and threw for 27 touchdowns. The Vikings have a lot of proven talent on the offensive side of the ball, and this should once again be a very fantasy friendly offense if they keep it together.
Teams with New Offensive Coordinators
The Bills lost Brian Daboll but went out and promoted pass game coordinator/QB coach to be their new offensive coordinator, as publicly requested by Josh Allen. The Bills also added Joe Judge to be their QB coach and Aaron Kromer to coach the offensive line. Normally I would not talk up an o-line coach hire, but there was a lot of hype around it on social media. The Bills will once again bring back Josh Allen and many of the weapons around him next season — so there is not reason to worry.